The EU’s idea echoes Emmanuel Macron’s multi-speed Union blueprint, which he has outlined several times since he became French president in 2017. The latest version has been informally dubbed “reverse enlargement,” according to an EU official and two European diplomats, because it effectively brings countries into the bloc at the beginning of the process of meeting membership criteria rather than at the end.
EU officials say the idea is attractive because it would give Kyiv breathing space to finish reforms to its democratic institutions, judiciary and political system while lessening the likelihood it abandons hope of ever joining the bloc and turns its back on the West. However, obstacles lie ahead, not least Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who opposes Ukraine’s membership.
Based on conversations with five diplomats representing different countries and three EU and two Ukrainian officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss the confidential negotiations they are familiar with, POLITICO has identified five steps.
Step 1: Get Ukraine ready
The EU has been “frontloading” Ukraine’s membership bid. That involves providing Kyiv with informal guidance in negotiating “clusters” — the legal steps on the path to membership.
The bloc has already provided Ukraine with details on three of six negotiating clusters. At an informal meeting of European affairs ministers in Cyprus in March, the EU wants to give a visiting Ukrainian delegation details of more clusters so work can begin on those as well.
“Despite the most challenging circumstances, in the midst of ongoing Russian aggression, Ukraine is accelerating its reform efforts,” Marilena Raouna, deputy Europe minister of Cyprus, which holds the Council of the EU presidency, told POLITICO. The March 3 meeting will target reaffirming that support, she said.