interview
The highest court in the USA has overturned Trump’s punitive tariffs – thereby making possible billions of dollars in repayments. World Trade Institute director Manfred Elsig explains why in the end only a few people benefit.
Feb 21, 2026, 7:53 p.mFeb 21, 2026, 8:14 p.m
Simon Maurer / ch media
On Friday, in response to the nullification of the previous tariffs, the White House announced that it would introduce a general punitive tariff of 10 percent against all trading partners. Late Saturday afternoon, Donald Trump increased that percentage to 15 percent. What actually applies will only become clear in the coming days and hours – the official decision has not yet been published, and the new tariffs are not expected to take effect until Tuesday, February 24th.
Donald Trump appeared in front of the media on Friday after the tariff ruling, visibly annoyed.Image: keystone
The US Supreme Court has declared President Trump’s tariffs unconstitutional. The US judges also said that the illegally imposed tariffs can be reclaimed by the government. What does this mean specifically for the companies that paid punitive tariffs?
Manfred Elsig: Basically, this means that direct importers can now petition Customs and Border Protection for a refund of these funds. The companies or US states that have sued will probably be given priority. The situation is particularly interesting for Swiss companies. If only 10 percent instead of 15 percent tariffs actually apply in the near future, companies could export a little more to the USA again.
Since March 2025 according to estimates from the University of Pennsylvania around $175 billion in additional tariffs. How realistic is it that this sum will actually be repaid – and over what period of time are we talking here?
Part will have to be paid back. How much exactly is difficult to estimate. On the one hand, we have to be prepared for delays from the authorities. On the other hand, companies have up to two years to make demands and must also consider proportionality. Since the refund of customs duties paid is not automatic, certain administrative and possibly legal steps are required to obtain the funds – and these are associated with costs. Smaller companies may not want to go through this.
Who specifically decides on the repayments – does it go through Trump’s customs authorities or through the specialized Court of International Trade?
The Court of International Trade has jurisdiction here. There is a process to be defined, whereby the demands are first made to the customs authorities. If the claims are rejected or only partially followed, the court can then be referred.
The trade policy expert
Manfred Elsig is Professor of International Relations and Managing Director of the World Trade Institute at the University of Bern. He is considered one of the leading experts on international trade policy and studies how trade agreements are drafted.
US importers have formally paid the tariffs. However, many have passed the costs on to their customers. From an economic perspective, who has the legitimate claim to reimbursement – the importers or ultimately the consumers?
Unless there are contractual agreements between importers and their customers, “passing on” is voluntary on the part of the importers. For customer satisfaction, however, it could make sense for importers to let their customers partially benefit from the refunds, since the latter have paid most of the customs duty (since this was included in the final price). It will be particularly interesting to see how larger importers, such as Fedex, position themselves in this regard.
Are Swiss companies affected? Or will US import companies primarily benefit from the ruling?
This is difficult to estimate at the moment. There may be Swiss companies that import products from the parent company and therefore act as direct importers. You could probably benefit from the ruling.
Left-wing US politicians have already expressed the fear that the money demanded back will not go to the small people who paid the tariffs as consumers. Rather, only large companies have the resources to sue for customs reclaims. Do you see this as a likely scenario?
The so-called “little people” will not benefit here. But many SMEs can certainly assert claims alone or in a group.
Does Trump have options to block recovery payments?
Of course, I imagine that Trump wants to keep the repayments as small as possible. Customs revenue is firmly budgeted to finance budget expenditure. We can therefore expect blocking tactics from the authorities and many lawsuits in court.
What exactly should affected companies, including those from Switzerland, do now – secure deadlines, document claims?
A lucrative business is now opening up here for specialized law firms. The deadlines are probably less of a problem, the situation is similar with the documents. It will be about ensuring that companies have access to good legal advice.
What does the Trump customs debacle mean for official Switzerland?
The White House has made it clear that it will now introduce a punitive tariff of 10 percent with other paragraphs. The US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and his team will maintain the pressure to ensure that the implementation of the “deals” continues. Switzerland’s room for maneuver remains small because the White House does not care about international and – as we see – national law. Until further notice, the law of the strongest applies here when dealing with Trump. Switzerland cannot really argue that the tariffs are not constitutional.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.Image: keystone
Is it worth it for the Federal Council to play for time now and delay the customs negotiations that were originally supposed to be concluded in March?
I assume that Switzerland is trying to justify delays through the Swiss political system. Larger trading nations, but also the EU, are given a little more leeway by the judge’s ruling. The defined tariffs and other non-tariff measures could also be a bit wobbly there. This is also the reason why the White House tried to keep up the threat yesterday. (aargauerzeitung.ch)