Tehran, Washington and the mediators are entering today’s meeting with sometimes opposing positions. An overview.
02/06/2026, 06:1202/06/2026, 06:12
Thomas Seibert, Istanbul / ch media
An American F-35 fighter jet took off from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea this week. The US military detected an Iranian long-range drone approaching the aircraft carrier around 900 kilometers off the Iranian coast. The F-35 shot down the drone.
Iranians walk past a caricature of Donald Trump in Tehran. image: epa
The confrontation shows how close Iran and the US are to war. A meeting that, according to information from a senior US government official, is taking place in Oman is intended to prevent the conflict, but those involved enter the negotiations with opposing positions.
The initial situation
US President Donald Trump has been threatening air strikes in Iran since January and has since ordered additional warships, including the Abraham Lincoln, near Iran. This Friday, Trump’s advisor Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner want to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
It is unclear whether mediators from Arab states and Turkey will also take part in the meeting in Oman. An agreement is not expected on Friday. Trump says he prefers an agreement with Iran to an attack, but he leaves open how long he wants to wait before ordering an attack.
Iran
“Tehran wants above all to prevent war,” says Iran expert Arman Mahmoudian from the University of South Florida. The regime is so weakened after the Israeli-American attacks last June and the recent mass protests that a new military conflict would threaten its existence, Mahmoudian told CH Media. The Iranian side’s second goal is to get its economy out of the ongoing crisis. This also serves the survival of the regime.
Iranian women in Tehran: What’s next for the country? image: epa
The leadership knows that economic recovery is only possible if international sanctions against Iran are lifted – and that can only happen if the country limits its nuclear program to make it impossible to build a nuclear bomb. Araghchi and Witkoff had already discussed this issue last year but had not reached an agreement.
The 2015 nuclear deal has now expired. Trump is calling for an end to Iranian uranium enrichment and strict controls on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran is also expected to release around 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.
According to experts, an agreement on the nuclear issue is possible. Tehran wants “a deal that at least eases the pressure on the economy a little,” says Mahmoudian. However, Iran insists on the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes because regime leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would view an end to enrichment as a humiliation. Iran also wants to limit talks with the USA to the nuclear issue.
The USA
Trump sees a new set of rules for Iran’s nuclear program as only part of an overall solution. He also calls for a reduction in Iran’s missile arsenal. The Revolutionary Guard has around 3,000 missiles that threaten Israel and other American allies, but from Khamenei’s perspective they are the only remaining instrument of deterrence for Iran. Washington is also demanding that Iran end support for anti-Israel groups in the Middle East such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Trump is currently no longer talking about the goal of regime change in Iran. In recent weeks, the president has said it is time for a new government in Tehran. He also promised the anti-government demonstrators that “help is on the way.” He threatens Khamenei’s regime with “bad things” if the new talks fail. But overthrowing the Islamic Republic is apparently not one of his goals at the moment.
The intermediaries
Regime change is also not on the agenda for most of Iran’s neighbors, although they don’t care much for the theocracy in Tehran. Israel is the only Middle East state to call for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. For the other countries, the main thing is to avoid new turmoil in the region.
Turkey offered to host the Iranian-American talks. Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are also involved.
When preparing for Friday’s meeting, the mediators have different priorities. Turkey wants the USA to concentrate on the nuclear issue. The government in Ankara believes that the negotiation process could be stalled if discussions about Iranian missiles or Iran’s Middle East policy were the focus.
Other states in the region are taking Iran more seriously. Tehran must come to an agreement with the USA, demanded UAE government advisor Anwar Gargash. Iranian missile disarmament would be in the interest of the Gulf states, which do not want to rely on the USA’s promise of protection. After all, during his first term in office, Trump refused to punish Iran for the bombing of Saudi oil facilities.