The “peace president” is increasingly behaving like a war president: Donald Trump.Image: keystone
analysis
A drone attack, then a “huge explosion”: the USA attacked on Venezuelan soil for the first time. That could be dangerous for Maduro. Trump too.
December 31, 2025, 06:26December 31, 2025, 06:26
Alexander Kauschanski / Zeit Online
Are the US and Venezuela on the brink of war? So far, the US attacks have targeted suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean. But on December 24th, a “huge explosion” is said to have rocked a Venezuelan port facility. US President Donald Trump was the first to speak about it, declaring that the site attacked by drones “no longer exists”. For the first time since the beginning of the conflict, the USA attacked a target directly on Venezuelan territory.
Little is still known about the attack. The CIA is said to have executed him, reports the news channel CNN, citing US sources. The foreign intelligence service actually operates in secret, but Trump had announced a strike weeks before. According to CNN, the US government suspected that the dock that was hit had served as a drug transshipment point for a cartel. There was no one on site at the time of the explosion, so there were no deaths.
The fact that the USA is no longer afraid of attacking on Venezuelan soil shows that the Trump government has long been waging a war against Venezuela’s ruler Nicolás Maduro. It is a hybrid war, one designed to blur the line between peace and armed struggle. And the US President has already clearly stated his goal: to overthrow Maduro’s regime.
Mauduro has to go if Trump has his way.Image: keystone
To achieve this, the US government is creating a network of open and covert actions that exert military and economic pressure. It should slowly wrap around the regime’s neck and tighten at some point. But how far does Trump want to go in his aggression against Venezuela? Would the president ultimately risk open war with US ground troops?
Military pressure, economic blackmail, diplomatic isolation
The first move was psychologically aimed at Maduro: In the summer, the US government put a $50 million bounty on Maduro’s head. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused him of manipulating the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election. He denied his regime any legitimacy: Maduro, Rubio accused, was the head of a drug cartel. US Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that Maduro would be held accountable for his “despicable crimes.” Since then, the US government has openly undermined Maduro’s claim to power.
In the second step, the Trump administration relied on military pressure: in mid-August, the USA relocated 15,000 soldiers to the Caribbean, accompanied by combat aircraft and one of the world’s largest warships, the USS Gerald R. Ford. The US Navy has been blowing up suspected drug boats since September: to date, it has destroyed more than 30 boats and killed at least 107 people. The message is unmistakable: Trump is willing to use violence as a political tool.
Trump is ready to use the military directly against Venezuela: US Black Hawk helicopter. (symbol image)Image: keystone
The third step was diplomatic isolation: in mid-November, the US State Department classified Maduro’s government as a foreign terrorist organization, putting it on the same level as terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda. At the same time, the US government included the Venezuelan opposition in its actions. Opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado said US escalation was the “only way” to overthrow Maduro. At the end of November there was a telephone conversation with Maduro: Trump gave him an ultimatum to resign. He is said to have promised him and his family safe passage in exile. Maduro refused.
Fourth, the USA resorted to economic blackmail: at the end of November, Trump ordered international airlines to consider Venezuelan airspace as completely closed. Airlines suspended their flights over Venezuela. Then in December, Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers. Shortly thereafter, US units began to forcibly board and seize Venezuelan tankers. Maduro’s sources of income should gradually disappear.
The fifth step was that the USA, so to speak, kicked in the front door of Venezuela: with the drone attack on Venezuelan soil, the USA crossed the threshold for operations on the enemy’s territory. The action was largely symbolic, US sources tell CNN. Ultimately, only one of many port structures that drug traffickers use was hit.
The blow heralds a new phase of aggression. The US is now apparently ready to ignore Venezuela’s sovereignty for targeted attacks. But with what aim?
Officially, the US government justifies its actions with national security and the fight against drugs. But the majority of drugs in the USA come from other countries; almost all cocaine in the country comes from Colombia. By claiming that Maduro heads a drug cartel, Trump is actually creating the legal basis for military force. The real motives for pushing Maduro out of office lie elsewhere.
With their release in mid-December National Security Strategythe guide to US foreign and security policy, Trump has revealed what it is really about: The USA wants to expand its “supremacy” in the Western Hemisphere. They want to push back the influence of opposing powers such as Russia, China and Cuba, with which Maduro has close ties. “We take what we want and don’t ask for permission,” This is how US historian Alan McPherson summarized the security strategy in Latin America to ZEIT.
“All of its resources, straits, canals, land corridors and infrastructure belong to the USA.”
Another driver is interest in Venezuelan oil. Venezuela has the largest reserves in the world. US corporations hope that more political influence will give them better funding rights. Trump is also demanding the return of oil, land and facilities that were “stolen” from the USA. By this he means the renationalization of Venezuela’s oil industry from 2007, which also nationalized assets of US companies. Meanwhile, Venezuela has learned from its network of sanctioned states such as Iran and Russia to covertly transport oil to avoid sanctions. Trump announced that he would not return confiscated oil, but would keep it or sell it.
Trump has so far hesitated to attack further
How is it that Maduro hasn’t caved in under the massive pressure from the USA? When he makes public appearances in front of his supporters, the autocrat appears calm: he laughs, dances salsa and sings John Lennon’s anti-war anthem Imagine. Then he threatens, describing the US actions as “imperial madness” and “piracy”. His autocratic partners support him. Russia and China are pushing for emergency meetings in the UN Security Council to denounce “US aggression” and the blockade.
Maduro is also trying to show strength militarily. He claims to have mobilized four million military personnel and held major maneuvers. In order to circumvent the US naval blockade, his navy is now using its own warships to escort oil tankers. And yet Maduro is said to be worried about his safety: It is reported that that he and his family have been spending nights in a huge military base for years.
Maduro will know: Venezuela is far inferior militarily. The United States has the most powerful military in the world and a defense budget of nearly $1 trillion.
So why is Trump hesitant to further attack Venezuela? The US President is struggling with miserable poll numbers, around 62 percent are dissatisfied with his previous work, only 35 percent still support him. A ground war in Venezuela could cause his approval ratings to plummet further. According to a November CBS poll 70 percent of those surveyed reject US military action there. For the politically ailing Trump, open war would be a very risky game.
“The majority of Americans would only talk about war when tens of thousands of soldiers were deployed,” said the US historian McPherson to TIME. “At the latest when people’s sons and daughters come back in body bags.” But such a protracted conflict with US deaths does not fit into Trump’s self-image, who has always cursed the “endless wars” of his predecessors and wants the Nobel Peace Prize.
Resistance to Trump’s course is also growing in the US Congress. Democrats and some Republicans are now examining whether the government committed war crimes in its attacks in the Caribbean. Republican Senator Rand Paul called the killings without trial “despicable.” Democrats are also pushing to allow further attacks only with congressional approval. So far, the Republican majority has blocked every move.
But even if Trump wanted to attack, the reality of war speaks against him. According to experts, more than 100,000 US soldiers would be needed to take over a country the size of Venezuela. Military strikes could plunge the country into civil war, says US sociologist David Smilde to ZEIT. Instead of bringing democracy, Venezuela would descend into chaos.
So what follows? Trump may hope to force Maduro out of office without a single soldier on the ground in Venezuela. It is uncertain whether drone attacks will be sufficient. If the USA’s leverage continues to fail, the next blow will not be long in coming.
This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed headings and subheadings. Click here for the original.