Thanks to prediction markets, you can now bet on war and peace. This is problematic in many ways. But not for the Trump family. She benefits once again.
March 31, 2026, 4:39 p.mMarch 31, 2026, 4:46 p.m
A Polymarket user suspected of making over $1.2 million from insider knowledge is betting a large sum on today’s ceasefire announcement. The bet expires tomorrow at 5:59 am.
The account with the name “Magamessi” bet almost $16,000 on “Peace until March 31, 2026” on the Polymarket platform five days ago. He put another 10,500 on “peace until April 15th” and almost 9,000 on “peace until April 30th”. The information could not be independently verified. Names can be changed as desired on Polymarket.
If both sides announce an official ceasefire today, Magamessi will win all three bets and a lot of money – and the world will regain some peace.
Prediction markets have emerged strongly in recent years. They are comparable to betting shops. Attendees can purchase coupons to enter an event. These can be traded and gain or lose value depending on how things develop. For example, if you bet today that US ground personnel will invade Iran in March (i.e. in the next few hours), you will get the coupon for 2.5 cents. If you bet against it, you have to shell out 97.5 cents. Things look different for April. According to Polymarket, the chance of the same event occurring next month is 65 percent (65 cents for a yes coupon, 36 cents for a no). A clear majority of users currently assume that the USA will also wage war with ground troops in Iran.
The use of prediction markets in Switzerland falls under the Gambling Act. The call from international market leaders such as Polymarket and Kalshi is blocked in Switzerland.
The idea behind prediction markets is to be able to make predictions about the occurrence of certain events based on the market dynamics of incoming bets. The accuracy of prediction markets is sometimes astonishing. When it comes to predicting political elections, for example, they already compete strongly with traditional polls.
The Magamessi user account is part of a network of six different accounts that has earned over $1.2 million on Polymarket since 2024 with an accuracy of between 80 and 90 percent. The individual accounts – all anonymous – exclusively suggested airstrikes on Iran carried out by both Israel and the United States. An analysis of the company that specializes in this Bubblemaps showed that there are various connections between the accounts. All evidence suggests that this is a single user with insider knowledge. All in all, the six accounts are betting on peace with over $100,000 – the majority on March 31, 2026.
However, the store doesn’t care about tastelessness. The “distance” of Ayatollah Khamenei could also be predicted.
Like all good ideas, humanity must reduce this to absurdity – today, for example, one can bet that Looksmaxxer Clavicular will be the next Ayatollah in Iran.
The chances of this happening are less than one percent – yet the Gaga bet was worth over $1 million. The suspicion of money laundering is obvious.
A little less gaga, but more problematic, are bets à la: “Which character will die in the fifth season of “The Boys”?” Why? Because at least the scriptwriters, all the actors and a bunch of people involved already have this information.
The situation is similar with strategic decisions by the US government. Various people are involved here too. Donald Trump’s loose mouth expands this circle almost arbitrarily. Thanks to prediction markets, almost any insider knowledge of the US government can be monetized. That’s exactly what happens.
On the afternoon of January 2nd, an anonymous person with a recently created account on Polymarket bet $32,537 that Nicolas Maduro would no longer be in office on January 31st. A few hours later, US President Trump announced the arrest of the Venezuelan leader. Because few people expected it at the time, the unknown man’s winnings amounted to $436,000.
In May 2025, Nazi sympathizer Kyle Langford used the Kalshi platform to bet $200 on his own candidacy for governor of California – which he then immediately announced. He was banned for 5 years and fined $2,200. A producer of the world’s most successful YouTuber Mr. Beast was also banned. He also used insider information for betting winnings.
The prediction markets are public. Foreign authorities also study the movements of the markets – and draw their conclusions when another suspicious bet is placed. One might think that it would be in the US government’s best interest to stop insider betting. But that’s not the case. Despite increasingly loud calls for regulations, the current US government is relying on self-regulation among providers. “It’s like whipping her with a wet noodle,” Chris Ehrman commented on NBC News the “measure” smug. Attorney Ehrman knows his stuff. He headed the whistleblower office of the U.S. Futures and Options Trading Authority.
Above all, no regulations help the providers – and the Trump family. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, has a stake in Polymarket through his investment company. At the same time, he acts as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, its largest competitor.
Under Joe Biden, US citizens were banned from betting on Polymarket. A corresponding lawsuit was dropped under Donald Trump.
Who is behind the insider accounts regarding the Iran War is still unknown to this day. To open an account at Polymarket you only need a crypto wallet. This allows you to open a user account in a fraction of a second. Crypto wallets are anonymous.
What is money to you?
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