Are the USA and China heading for war? Beijing is already preparing for such an eventuality – and is drawing lessons from the war in the Middle East.
March 31, 2026, 05:28March 31, 2026, 05:28
Nilofar Breuer / t-online
China is closely monitoring the war in the Middle East. As early as mid-March, Western insiders told the US media “Bloomberg” that Beijing’s military was closely analyzing the war fueled by US President Donald Trump – apparently with the aim of deriving lessons from the US’s military capabilities that could prove useful in a future war.
Donald Trump and the USA are revealing weaknesses in the Iran war – they will not have gone unnoticed by Xi Jinping.Image: keystone
Specifically, it is about a possible conflict over Taiwan. The situation on the island, which has been governed democratically for decades and which Beijing views as its own territory, is definitely tense. After all, China’s head of state Xi Jinping has made it clear several times that he does not want to postpone unification indefinitely – and could use military force if necessary.
Recently, China increased military pressure on Taiwan with extensive maneuvers by the navy and air force, while the USA promised Taiwan an arms deal worth billions. Specifically, a deal worth nine billion dollars is about to be completed, which includes, among other things, anti-tank missiles, howitzers and the Himars artillery system. In any case, the USA is the island’s most important arms supplier, which is exacerbating tensions between Beijing and Washington.
What lessons does China learn from the war in the Middle East to be superior to the USA in a potential conflict? An overview:
US bases are vulnerable
First of all, Beijing sees that the US air force is definitely vulnerable. This is reported by the “Military Affairs” portal, citing an attack in Saudi Arabia. According to media reports, the Prince Sultan base, which is also used by the US military, was hit by Iran in a bombing. Specifically, US tanker aircraft are said to have been damaged and twelve US emergency services were injured.
If there is an escalation between China and the USA, Beijing can take its cue from vulnerabilities previously uncovered in the Iran War and also target these in order to weaken the enemy’s military capabilities. Any modern military equipment that is destroyed in a conflict would be difficult and expensive to replace. In addition, the US bases are particularly vulnerable because they have already fired numerous anti-aircraft missiles – which is the second lesson.
US ammunition stocks are dwindling
If Trump has his way, the USA would have to win the war against Iran as quickly as possible. Among other things, so that the USA can avert an ammunition shortage. A report by the US media “Washington Post” shows that this shortage is already threatening the USA, citing unnamed sources. Accordingly, the Pentagon is currently examining whether weapons intended for Ukraine should be diverted to the Middle East as the war with Iran depletes some of the US military’s most important ammunition stocks. These include Patriot anti-aircraft missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles.
In principle, it represents a strategic advantage for China if the USA emerges from the war in the Middle East with depleted ammunition stocks. What also contributes to China’s superiority in the event of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific is that the USA has already relocated its military resources from the Far East to the Middle East. What remains clear is that a war of attrition in the Middle East increases the US’s vulnerability in a possible conflict over Taiwan – to the delight of China.
Iranian drones serve as a model
China could also follow Tehran’s military as an example. In particular, the Iranian regime uses inexpensive kamikaze drones of the Shahed type, which cost the US millions to defend against. Because so far the USA continues to rely on expensive Patriot systems. The cost of an anti-aircraft missile alone is estimated to be well over a million dollars. If China now also uses cheap air and sea drones, the current status of air defense would put the USA in financial distress.
Based on current knowledge, it remains to be seen whether the conflict over Taiwan will actually escalate. In addition, a visit by the US President to Beijing is still pending: Trump is expected in China in mid-May. His meeting with Xi was postponed from early April because of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
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