Donald Trump’s policies have driven up the price of oil.Image: keystone
analysis
The price of oil temporarily shot up to over $100. The world was threatened with an oil shock, as was the case most recently in 2022. Then Trump apparently got scared.
March 9, 2026, 9:57 p.mMarch 9, 2026, 9:57 p.m
Ten days after the start of the war, the news was still grim. The US and Israel continue to bomb Iran as it launches drone strikes in the region. The infrastructure for oil and natural gas remains under attack. And traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. The war is developing along the worst fears of analysts – the British “Economist” called this “the horror scenario”.
Now US President Donald Trump is apparently dealing with fear. As the “Financial Times” reports, he suddenly declared in an interview with the TV station CBS that the war against Iran was “practically over” and that there was “nothing left militarily” in the country.
The energy markets reacted immediately. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate prices fell back below $90 a barrel. Wall Street markets closed higher as oil prices fell.
The oil market had previously reacted sharply. The price of Brent crude temporarily shot up to $116 per barrel and remained around $100. This means the price is almost 50 percent higher than before the start of the war. If the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked for a long time, the oil shock would have surpassed that of 2022. At that time, Russia attacked Ukraine and then massively cut off Europe’s energy supply. That’s why Trump apparently had to deal with fear.
The Strait of Hormuz is far more important to the global oil market than Russia. This produces ten million barrels of oil every day, of which 7 million are exported, writes financial expert Robin Brooks from the Brookings think tank on the Substack platform. On the other hand, 20 million barrels of oil would pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. This means that almost three times more barrels of oil enter the global supply via Hormuz. Brooks: “What is happening now is on a much larger scale than in 2022.”
Like every crisis, the Iran crisis had its winners and losers. Before Trump spoke to CBS and claimed that the war was effectively over, there was growing evidence that Trump himself would be one of the biggest losers in the Iran war.
The big winner was Russia and its President Vladimir Putin, as expert Brooks wrote. Before the war there was still too much oil on the world market. Russian oil was reviled on the world market, sanctioned and traded at a large discount. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, around 20 percent of the world’s oil supply will be lost overnight. So oil is suddenly in short supply.
And Russian oil is in demand again. The USA has therefore already dropped sanctions against Russia. At least for now, India is buying Russian oil again. And even better for Putin: the discount on his oil has fallen massively. Brooks’ conclusion is therefore clear: “This represents an enormous gain for Putin.” Or would have been if Trump hadn’t gotten cold feet.
The USA is only protected at first glance
Other winners were quickly found, as an expert at the Chatham House think tank writes. These are the countries that export more energy than they import and whose sales are not hindered by war. In addition to Russia, these include Norway and Canada. The losers are, in decreasing order, South Korea, Japan, India or China. Then come European countries like France, Germany and Great Britain.
Switzerland is somewhere in the middle: with a small deficit, it is a small loser, so to speak. The US is a small winner, with a small surplus. Thanks to fracking, the US has been exporting more than it imports since 2020.
That was a simple story, but other economists find it too simple or even “sloppy”. It ignores the fact that the profits from oil exports are unevenly distributed. In the USA, the energy companies will earn more, but Mr. and Mrs. Smith will pay more at the gas station. Because the prices at the pump are not determined by a national oil market, but by a global one. Consequently, the US gas stations had already made it clear opened.
The story with gas is a little more complicated, as economist Dean Baker from the think tank Cepr explains. When it comes to natural gas, there are actually something like national markets because transportation is much more expensive. Prices in Europe can be up to four times higher than in the USA. The loss of natural gas from the Middle East will therefore be a serious blow to Europe, while the consequences for the USA will be limited. In Europe, natural gas prices have already risen by 80 percent. This increase will in turn have an impact on electricity prices.
Does the National Bank have to increase its key interest rate?
Consumers will also be affected in Switzerland: if petroleum remains so expensive, gasoline and heating oil will become more expensive. The price of gas will increase and that of electricity will be pushed up. But Switzerland has one characteristic that helps: it is less dependent on oil than most industrialized countries and is therefore better protected against rising oil prices. According to the bank J. Safra Sarasin, Switzerland is therefore not threatened with a major surge in inflation. The Swiss National Bank is unlikely to be forced to raise its key interest rates. She can therefore ride out the oil shock.
But Trump could have become one of the biggest losers from high oil prices. Because the Smiths are of course annoyed about their higher gas costs. Especially since Trump had actually promised them lower consumer prices. He did not comply with this and, on the contrary, even increased the prices himself with his tariffs. According to surveys, even before the war, only 38 percent of Americans were satisfied with him. Then he made the cost of living crisis even worse with his Iran war.
There are midterm elections in November in which Trump’s Republicans in Parliament could lose both chambers. And voters usually make their decision months in advance. As Politico magazine reports, there is growing concern in the White House about high prices, especially for gasoline. According to Politico, the government is now “looking at all possible ideas to lower gasoline prices.”
However, the Trump administration doesn’t have to look too far. Obviously, if Trump ended his war in Iran, the price of oil would immediately plummet. Things didn’t look like that until Monday evening, Swiss time. Trump preferred to post angrily that rising oil prices were a “very small price” to pay for the “security and peace” of America and the world. “Only fools would think otherwise.”
He recently even demanded an “unconditional surrender” from Iran. But he made such a demand in the so-called 12-Day War in June 2025. Iran did not surrender at the time, but Trump stopped the attacks shortly afterwards. The Iranian nuclear facilities had been destroyed or “obliterated” and that was enough, Trump claimed at the time. The Raiffeisen economist Alexander Koch said before Trump’s withdrawal: “One can at least hope that Trump will choose such a strategy again in order to defuse the ‘aimless’ conflict while saving face.”
Apparently that’s what actually happened. (aargauerzeitung.ch)