analysis
Apparently at the last minute, the US President called off an air strike on Tehran. Now there are increasing signs that America could still intervene in Iran.
January 26, 2026, 8:09 p.mJanuary 26, 2026, 8:09 p.m
Fabian Hock and Simon Maurer / ch media
The USS Abraham Lincoln is heading to the Arabian Sea and will soon be within striking distance of Iran. By relocating the aircraft carrier group to the region, US President Donald Trump has created a huge threat against the mullahs’ regime. A ship equipped with anti-aircraft missiles is also said to be heading towards Israel.
USS Abraham Lincoln: The aircraft carrier is heading towards Iran.Image: keystone
What is behind the troop deployment?
Trump promised help to the Iranian demonstrators in mid-January. Because of the bloody suppression of the protests, he threatened to attack the Islamic Republic. The US portal Axios reported a few days ago that the American armed forces were ready for an air strike the Wednesday before last – and that Trump is said to have called them back at the last moment.
The reason for this is said to have been, among other things, a call from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu because he first wanted to prepare his country’s defense systems for an Iranian counterattack.
The USS Abraham Lincoln during a military exercise.Image: keystone
A text message from the Iranian foreign minister may also have played a role – he apparently promised the Americans to stop the public executions of arrested demonstrators. However, the Iranian leadership never officially confirmed this.
By sending the aircraft carrier group, which includes three destroyers, fighter jets, helicopters and several thousand soldiers, Trump is now keeping all options open.
How could the US intervene?
Middle East expert Reinhard Schulze, who is in one Interview with CH Media spoke of a “fundamental change” in Irandesigned on Saturday in the short message service X A possible scenario: US President Donald Trump will demand disarmament from Iran. Tehran refuses. The USA responds with targeted air strikes.
According to an analysis by Nate Swanson, former Iran director on the US National Security Council, Trump has several escalation options. These range from symbolic military strikes on nuclear or missile facilities to targeted attacks on the security apparatus (such as the Revolutionary Guard) and attacks on key economic infrastructure such as oil and gas terminals.
An extreme – and hardly calculable – scenario is an attack on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which, according to Swanson, could trigger a power vacuum and open war. There are also non-military options, such as political or technical support for protesters, but their impact would be limited.
Meanwhile, the analysts from “The War Zone” point out that the troops now mobilized would not be enough for a major operation against Iran. More fighter jets would be needed.
Can a military strike topple the regime?
Probably not directly. According to Swanson’s analysis for the Atlantic Council, protesters would be most likely to benefit from the powerful psychological effect. A US strike against the regime’s security apparatus could boost their morale enough to encourage them to continue protests, create cracks in the power apparatus and lead to defections. However, the opposite effect cannot be ruled out: the regime could respond with even more brutal repression.
What is the current situation in Iran?
Devastating. The US human rights organization Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported at least 5,848 deaths and over 40,000 arrests over the weekend. However, the number of unreported cases is likely to be significantly higher.
The foundation of Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, who was imprisoned in Iran, called the bloody suppression of the protests a “massacre of enormous proportions”. At the weekend, Time Magazine and an Iranian opposition portal reported over 30,000 deaths on January 8th and 9th alone. These numbers cannot be independently verified.
Since the end of December, Iranians have been taking to the streets against their country’s leadership. After the protests reached a new level of escalation at the beginning of January, the leadership around Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled by shooting demonstrators and shutting down the internet and telephone networks.
The situation on the streets has calmed down somewhat in the past week, but observers suspect that an even greater escalation could occur in the coming days.
How is the regime in Tehran and its allies responding to the American threat?
The Iranian Defense Ministry warned the US and Israel on Monday against intervention. It was said that Tehran’s reaction would be more painful than in the past.
In Tehran, the regime had a mural erected as a warning. It shows several damaged aircraft on an aircraft carrier. It is said: “Whoever sows the wind will reap the storm.”
A billboard in Tehran: “Whoever sows the wind will reap the storm.”Image: AP
The Houthi rebels in Yemen have also threatened new attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
How the next few days develop no longer depends solely on the Iranian leadership. The decisive factor will be the US strategy – and the question of how the Iranian population reacts.