The Russian army has lost its previous offensive momentum, experts say. But that is not the only good news for Ukraine.
Mar 27, 2026, 10:46 p.mMar 27, 2026, 10:47 p.m
In the shadow of Donald Trump’s Iran war, something dramatic is happening in Ukraine. Kiev is responding to the USA’s easing of oil sanctions against Russia with an unprecedented air offensive against the oil industry in the St. Petersburg area – around 1,000 kilometers from its own border.
There are currently numerous pictures and videos circulating on the Internet of spectacular major fires in oil facilities; from the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk. These attacks are part of a larger strategy. As the Reuters news agency reports, around 40 percent of Russia’s oil export capacity is now out of service. The country’s second largest refinery, Kirishi, southeast of St. Petersburg, was once again badly hit.
Two years ago there was a fire at the second largest Russian gas producer Novatek in Ust-Luga. Image: keystone
This is “the most serious disruption to oil supplies in Russia’s modern history,” according to Reuters. Since energy exports represent a central source of income for Moscow, this has a serious impact on the Russian state budget – and thus the financing of the war.
At the same time, there are increasing indications of a remarkable shift in the entire course of the war. While Russia officially remains committed to a large-scale spring and summer offensive, it is becoming increasingly obvious that Ukraine is increasingly regaining the initiative: militarily, technologically and strategically.
Drone warfare is shifting the front
The military correspondent Stefan Korschak describes in one Opinion piece for the “Kyiv Post” how Ukraine has established a new dimension in warfare with its innovative drone industry. An effective antidote to the Russian Shahed and Geran airstrikes was found with interceptor drones. In a Senate hearing, US Lieutenant General Steven Whitney recently described Ukraine’s air defense as the best on the planet: “Their level of innovation is out of this world,” praised the American officer.
Our own long-range threats combat strategic targets deep in the Russian hinterland, as the attacks on the oil industry prove. And thanks to the mass use of kamikaze drones, which are constantly being further developed, it was possible to somewhat compensate for the personnel gaps in its own ranks and effectively combat Russian ground attacks. The so-called “death zone” now extends over 100 kilometers behind the front. Russian troop movements are detected early and “increasingly stopped by drones, artillery and mines,” said Korschak.
This technological superiority is forcing Russia to adapt. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), successful Ukrainian counterattacks and precise strikes against logistics and infrastructure are leading to growing criticism even in Russian military circles. At the same time, it will be more difficult for Moscow to prepare a coordinated offensive.
Russia is losing momentum
That is why there is a clear trend in ground warfare. The German expert Erhard Bühler describes in his Podcast “What should you do, General?” the significant deterioration of the Russian situation: Ukraine seemed to be “taking away the momentum of the Russian attack in almost all sectors of the front”.
The Ukrainian armed forces not only stopped Russian advances, but also undermined the conditions for an offensive through targeted counterattacks and strikes against supplies and communications. This forced Russia to deploy reserves early and redeploy forces that are now not available or only available with a delay for its own summer offensive.
Particularly noteworthy: “In the past week there was only one section of 13 hotspots where the Russians achieved terrain gains – albeit only marginally,” says the retired army general: “We have not seen a situation like this for two years.” The analysis by Bühler, who is considered one of the most cautious among German-speaking military experts, is supported by other situation reports.
Structural problems on the Russian side
There are also growing structural difficulties. According to ISW, even military bloggers close to the Kremlin are now increasingly criticizing the Russian army’s inability to reform. At the same time, the shortening of training times for new soldiers – according to Bühler from four to just one week in some cases – points to acute personnel problems: “You can only feel sorry for the young people for the way they are treated, many of them won’t come back.”
From four weeks to just one: the training of young recruits in Russia is shrinking – and with it the future of the army.Image: keystone
Pressure is also growing domestically. Critical voices are increasing, as is public criticism of Putin by former supporters Ilya Remeslo made waves. At the same time shows one Opinion poll from the Levada Institute that, at 67 percent, more Russians surveyed than ever before are in favor of starting peace negotiations. However, this is despite consistently high support for the war against Ukraine itself (72%).
Ukraine relies on adaptation and reform
All of these factors do not yet result in a fundamental turnaround in favor of Ukraine, let alone a preliminary decision in this war of attrition. Because Ukraine is also under pressure, especially due to Financing problems and a lack of personnel reserves.
The new Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov therefore announced “key changes” in mobilization and troop leadership after discussions with front-line soldiers, as the “Kyiv Independent” reported. The aim is to systematically resolve problems such as long deployment times, lack of rotation and equipment deficits.
In a detailed management report, Fedorov outlines the strategic priorities for the coming months. The focus is on a comprehensive modernization of the armed forces: Ukraine wants to further expand the use of drones, including guaranteed monthly deliveries to the brigades. In addition, logistics and even parts of supply are increasingly to be replaced by unmanned systems in order to reduce losses.
Fedorov formulates a clear leitmotif: “Human life is the highest value. We will fight for the life of every soldier.”