What next in Iran? Donald Trump and his “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth.Image: keystone
analysis
After a month of war, it remains unclear what goals the USA and Israel want to achieve in Iran. At the same time, the risks for the region and the world are increasing with every passing day.
March 30, 2026, 4:05 p.mMarch 30, 2026, 4:09 p.m
“Why did you start this war, Mr. President?” This question asked the New York Times on February 28th. On the same day, US President Donald Trump, together with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered air strikes on Iran. In the fog of this war it is difficult to understand which of the two was the driving force.
An important goal was achieved with the first wave of attacks on Tehran: the Iranian revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei was killed. Since then, other leading figures of the Islamist regime have been added. But it is not “beheaded”. Rather, it has proven to be resilient, which is what those familiar with Iran say are anything but surprised.
At the start of the war, revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei was killed, but the regime is holding out.Image: keystone
The Islamic Republic appears to have been preparing for such a scenario for a long time. Now it is massively weakened not only in terms of personnel but also materially, but not defeated. Despite all its brutality, the regime is not an “ordinary” dictatorship, but rather a broad-based one. The following still applies: it wins this war if it doesn’t lose it.
Spectacular “needle pricks”
Its military effectiveness is limited, but it still is capable of attacking targets in the regionso on Monday night. Sometimes spectacular “pin pricks” can be achieved with the bombardment the British base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean or destruction of the E3 Sentry radar aircraft.
Donald Trump does not seem to have expected this resistance. After the first attacks on Dubai and Oman, he expressed surprise. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a lifeline for the global economy, was also not on his radar. That’s why the stock markets fall while the price of oil rising to almost $120 per barrel.
Risk with ground forces
After a month of war, Trump seems increasingly perplexed. He oscillates between further escalation, for example with the deployment of ground troops, and the search for an exit strategy. Correspondingly contradictory are his comments. His fans celebrate this as a brilliant game of confusion, but a clear war aim is still not apparent.
Oil facilities on Kharg Island: An attack with ground troops would be highly risky.Image: EPA/EPA
There are some indications that Trump is making a military threat, but is actually aiming for a negotiated solution. Because an occupation of the island of Charg, which is central to Iranian oil exports would be highly risky. This is especially true for the attempt to produce around 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to take possession with ground troops.
Trump wants to buy time
At the same time, according to a report by the Reuters agency, Israel has two important people removed from his “death list”.: Speaker of Parliament Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Apparently Pakistan, which plays a key role in negotiations to end the war, had pressured the US government to do so.
Trump himself is said to be Ghalibaf, according to Politico appointed as negotiating partners. The indirect talks mediated by Pakistan were going “well,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. The halt to attacks on Iranian energy facilities until Easter Monday also suggests that the US President wants to gain time.
Worry in Israel
In Israel, people are following this development with concern. For decades, Benjamin Netanyahu had of a major blow against Iran with the participation of the USA. Now things could go like they did in the Twelve-Day War last June, when Netanyahu had to “call back” his jets because Trump had declared the fighting to be over.
Two points suggest that Trump is aiming for an early end to the war:
Regime change
Mossad boss David Barnea (l.) is said to have promised Benjamin Netanyahu a popular uprising.Image: keystone
In addition to preventing an Iranian atomic bomb, overthrowing the hated mullahs’ regime was perhaps the most important goal of the war, especially for the Israelis. Now it seemed feasible. David Barnea, the head of the Mossad secret service, is said to have claimed that within a few days of the start of the war, the Iranian people would rise up.
A corresponding one Research from the New York Times from last week caused a stir. Because Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are said to have taken the assessment at face value. One may ask how the Mossad chief came to this. It was only in January that the regime coldly suppressed the most recent protests.
According to the New York Times, Barnea’s predecessor Yossi Cohen described attempts to incite the people against the regime as a “waste of time.” It is not possible to mobilize enough people for an uprising. This appears to be true. Also Kurdish militias in the Mossad plan played a central rolekeep still.
Behind the scenes, Netanyahu is said to have expressed frustration with the Mossad’s misjudgment. Meanwhile, Donald Trump seems to have drawn his own conclusions. For him, the regime change was completed with the death of Ali Khamenei and the unclear whereabouts of his son and successor Moschtaba, as he explained on Sunday.
World economy
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has serious consequences for numerous countries, primarily Asian ones. They are dependent on oil deliveries through this “eye of the needle”. But the effects are felt around the globe. Even for the Swiss economy, which is considered particularly resilient the economic outlook has deteriorated significantly.
The longer the ban lasts, the more serious the consequences. The oil expert Rory Johnston even warned a “catastrophic shock” for the global economy. The loss of oil exports cannot simply be compensated for. Donald Trump was forced to ease oil sanctions against Russia and even Iran.
When it comes to regime change, he seems to be aiming for a solution based on the Venezuela model, with Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as the new “strong man”. The question of the nuclear program remains open. Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa banning the construction of a bomb. His successors could have significantly less inhibitions on this point.
Much remains to be seen in this war, which was launched without a clear plan or goal. However, a negotiated solution currently seems to be in the foreground. This fits the rumors that Vice President JD Vance is to lead the talks. He is considered an opponent or at least a skeptic of this renewed US military intervention in the Gulf region.