The invisible successor: Demonstrators loyal to the government hold up pictures of the new revolutionary leader Ayatollah Moschtaba Khamenei in Tehran.Image: keystone
The USA has alienated its allies – and now they are missing in the fight against the regime in Tehran. Before Trump can end the war, he must find a solution to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
March 14, 2026, 9:05 p.mMarch 14, 2026, 9:05 p.m
Kurt Pelda, Northern Israel / ch media
Apparently based on information from the population, Israeli Hermes drones bombed these posts in order to clear the way for the people. Given that the Basij is still active, it seems uncertain whether it would like to seize the opportunity. However, there may be demonstrations in the wake of the Persian New Year on March 20th – if the course of the war favors this.
Meanwhile, the new revolutionary leader Moschtaba Khamenei has a statement read out on television in which he threatens revenge and the opening of new fronts. This could mean the Houthi militias entering the war in Yemen or drone attacks on US territory and terrorist attacks. Today, drones can be launched from merchant ships and directed to their destination thousands of kilometers away from Iran.
Military dictatorship under the turban
Khamenei also announced that he would continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. This will make it more difficult for Trump to quickly end hostilities. While Iran is attacking ships filled with Arab oil, the Americans have sent tankers carrying nearly 12 million barrels of Iranian oil to China, according to services that track traffic in the Persian Gulf. This will bring an estimated $1 billion into the coffers of the cash-strapped regime in Tehran. It is difficult to understand what the American authorities are thinking. Tehran will laugh up its sleeve.
The fact that Khamenei does not personally address the Iranians via a video or audio message does not silence the rumors that he was injured in an airstrike. State television described the new leader as a “veteran of the Ramadan war.” Veterans are people who have fought or were wounded, and because the Israeli-American attack occurs during the Muslim month of fasting, from Iranian perspective it is the Ramadan War.
This leaves the question open as to whether the son of the slain revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei is capable of acting at all and whether the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard is simply dictating messages on his behalf.
In fact, the regime is now a dynasty that is incompatible with the original concerns of the Islamic Revolution. Because the “young” Khamenei is close to the all-powerful Revolutionary Guard, one can also speak of a military dictatorship under the turban. Trump certainly meant it differently when he suggested at the start of the war that the Iranian people could rise up in the wake of the air strikes and overthrow the government.
Roadblocks in Tehran in focus
After two weeks of war, however, the chances of a rapid overthrow are dwindling. This is also suggested by official statements from Israel and the Kurdish opposition in western Iran. Now both Israelis and Kurds assume that the air war will enormously weaken the Revolutionary Guards, but that the hoped-for popular uprising and regime change have been postponed until later.
The Revolutionary Guards’ repressive tool, which bloodily suppressed the large-scale anti-government demonstrations in January, is the so-called Basij militias. They have now set up roadblocks in many places in Tehran in order to nip manifestations in the bud.
Apparently based on information from the population, Israeli Hermes drones bombed these posts in order to clear the way for the people. Given that the Basij is still active, it seems uncertain whether it would like to seize the opportunity. However, there may be demonstrations in the wake of the Persian New Year on March 20th – if the course of the war favors this.
In Tehran you can find roadblocks and masked security forces everywhere.Image: www.imago-images.de
Even if Trump wants to end the war quickly, this will be difficult because of Iranian threats against shipping traffic. It is not for nothing that American air strikes in recent days have focused heavily on the remnants of the Iranian navy, particularly minelayers. In the drone age, however, Iranian maritime and aerial drones as well as anti-ship missiles play a greater role than classic surface ships.
On the Iranian side, the Strait of Hormuz is bordered by the foothills of the Zagros Mountains. There, the Revolutionary Guards can easily hide drones and missiles in rock caverns. Air strikes will hardly be enough to destroy all these bases for attacking tankers. That may be why U.S. forces even need to conduct localized ground operations if they want to minimize risks to shipping.
A United Arab Emirates warship is patrolling the Strait of Hormuz to protect civilian cargo ships.Image: keystone
Neither the Iranian Kurds nor the Gulf Arabs are willing to follow the erratic Trump into war. The US has a problem with its allies after belittling the Europeans and betraying the Syrian Kurds. That’s not how you win wars. It looks as if the military dictatorship under the turban – albeit weakened – may survive for a while. (aargauerzeitung.ch)