Oil depots burned in Iran as early as June 2025. (archive image)Image: keystone
February 28, 2026, 9:03 p.mFeb 28, 2026, 9:21 p.m
The war against Iran that began on Saturday with American and Israeli attacks could significantly disrupt global oil supplies. The conflict could drive prices to levels not seen in years.
Oil prices rose significantly on Friday in light of rising tensions around Iran and had risen by almost 3 percent at the close of trading in the USA. The price for a barrel of North Sea Brent oil rose to $72.48 – the highest level since July.
The price of oil has risen sharply in recent weeks.screenshot: finanzen.ch
The oil markets are closed on weekends. So far there is no evidence that oil production facilities were hit in Saturday’s attack on Iran. Oil trading does not reopen until the night from Sunday to Monday.
The members of the OPEC+ oil producer cartel want to discuss on Sunday the possibility of further increasing their oil production after the attacks on Iran by the USA and Israel, a representative of the cartel said. It had already been announced at the beginning of the week that the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia would be able to resume a slight increase in production from April after a three-month production stop; An additional increase is now being considered.
Iran as a key producer
Iran, whose economy depends heavily on oil revenues, is one of the ten largest producers in the world with around 3.1 million barrels per day, according to OPEC. In the 1970s, production was almost twice as high, before the 1979 Islamic Revolution and US sanctions squeezed it.
The country has the third largest reserves in the world, which is why attacks on its infrastructure would have consequences for the market. Today, due to US sanctions, Tehran exports only 1.3 to 1.5 million barrels per day; According to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen, more than 80 percent go to China.
Strait of Hormuz as a bottleneck
The biggest market risk remains a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened several times in the event of an attack. The strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is the main route for oil exports from the Middle East.
Ships in the Strait of Hormuz.Image: keystone
According to media reports, Iranian Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that the passage was effectively closed. The US authorities also called on merchant ships to avoid the Gulf due to intense military activity. However, shipping officials assume that the US could restore sufficient security for commercial shipments within days.
According to the US Energy Administration, around 20 million barrels were transported there every day in 2024 – around a fifth of global consumption. Because of its narrow width and depth, the passage is considered particularly vulnerable. According to Rasmussen, even doubts about safety could drive up insurance premiums and deter ships.
According to Hansen, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have significant bypass lines; they hold a maximum of 2.6 million barrels per day.
Oil prices as a weapon against Trump?
In response to the attacks, Iran on Saturday targeted several Gulf cities that are also home to US bases. Explosions were heard in Riyadh after US bases in Bahrain and Qatar were attacked.
This is how Iran strikes back:
Video: Watson/Michael Shepherd
The states “know that they are vulnerable,” says military expert Pierre Razoux from the French think tank FMES: In extreme cases, Iranian medium-range missiles could hit desalination plants, energy hubs or power plants.
A regional escalation would cause oil prices to rise sharply due to possible supply disruptions. For Tehran, a price jump would also be a means of exerting pressure on Washington. Given the US midterm elections and Trump’s promise of low energy prices, the government may want to avoid “a $100 barrel” – a level seen at the start of the Ukraine war, according to analyst John Evans (PVM). (sda/awp/afp/cma)
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