The idyll is deceptive: Dubai is suffering from the excesses of the US-Israeli war against Iran.Image: keystone
Iranian missiles and drones are causing an exodus of the super-rich from the United Arab Emirates. Many are switching to another small state.
Mar 18, 2026, 5:21 a.mMarch 18, 2026, 05:23
Michael Wrase, Limassol / ch media
Since its independence 55 years ago, the United Arab Emirates has been on the fast track. The driving force was Dubai, whose rulers turned almost everything they did into gold. “Our emirate must always be number one,” is the motto of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai.
“No one cares who comes second.”
Just a week ago, “Sheikh Mo” once again demonstratively strolled through the luxurious Dubai Mall to reassure shoppers that they had nothing to fear. Local television showed the ruler talking to a group of Asians, whom he smilingly asked if they were happy in Dubai, the self-proclaimed “land of the day after tomorrow.” The answer, of course, was a radiantly long “Yesss”.
In fact, at the time of the promotional tour, dozens of Iranian drones and missiles were hitting the emirate: there were over 2,200 drones and almost 400 missiles in the first two weeks of the war. After the American attacks on Kharg Island on Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghshi threatened the Emirates with further, even more vehement attacks. Finally, the USA attacked the oil loading port from the territory of its Arab neighbors.
The continuous shelling that hit the international airport again on Monday and Tuesday is a catastrophe for Dubai. The Emirate’s business model was based on a simple idea: although it is located in a highly volatile region, it has been a “haven of stability” for the last 55 years, untouched by wars and conflicts.
Now the war with Iran has destroyed the idea that glittering skyscrapers, concentrated financial power and a penchant for unbridled luxury can serve as an impenetrable barrier against the many unrest in the Middle East.
Flames in the midst of luxury: The UAE has lost its reputation as a safe haven for the time being.Image: keystone
Anyone who films rockets will end up in court
A large part of Dubai’s success was “based on the conviction that you are not in the Middle East,” explains American terrorism expert Bernard Hudson. Now the emirate has been reminded that it lives in “a volatile part of the world that it cannot influence”.
“Dubai is finished” was the headline of the British “Daily Mail” on its front page last Saturday, perhaps a bit too lurid. The London tabloid quoted “traumatized” British expats who declared before their departure that they would “never return to Dubai again.” It will no longer be possible to do business for the foreseeable future. A group of Brits who posted images of incoming rockets online were treated “like criminals,” the Mail complained. They would now have to go to prison for two years and pay a fine of £40,000.
It may be an exaggeration to say that Dubai is “at the end”. However, there is no question that a large wave of emigration has begun. According to the Wall Street Journal, asset managers and lawyers are receiving calls from clients who want to transfer their money to safe regions, especially Singapore. Switzerland could also benefit in the medium term from investments withdrawn from Dubai. “No one will invest their wealth under the illusion that there are no geopolitical tensions,” says Ryan Li, director of the Singaporean law firm Bayfront Law, diplomatically.
Hotels could have to close
Dubai attracted 9,800 millionaires last year alone. In total, there are over 86,000 super-rich people who have made Dubai – after London, Paris and Milan – the metropolis with the fourth-highest concentration of millionaires in the world. There are currently no exact figures about the exodus. However, the demand for private jets to “escape from Dubai” is extreme and the waiting lists are apparently long.
Many of the more than 170 five-star hotels in the emirate have laid off employees and are considering closing if the war does not end soon. According to the trade magazine Tourism Economics, the war with Iran could lead to a decline in visitor numbers of up to 27 percent, equivalent to a loss of up to $56 billion in visitor revenue.
The situation on the real estate market is also dramatic. The Iranian attacks have hit Dubai at the peak of a multi-year real estate boom. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, residential property prices rose by 60 percent, according to a Fitch rating. Now the market is exposed to a “drastic correction”. Initial estimates speak of a loss in value of 50 percent. “Thanks to Iran,” said Nabil Milalo, portfolio manager at Edmont de Rothschild Asset Management, sarcastically, the “geopolitical risk premium is now high and will stay that way.”
But the anger of Dubai’s four million residents, 90 percent of whom are expats, is not only directed against Iran. In a social media post addressed to Donald Trump personally, Khalah al Habtoor, one of Dubai’s leading property developers, asked “on what basis you made such a dangerous decision”:
“Did you actually calculate the huge collateral damage before you pulled the trigger?”
(aargauerzeitung.ch/con)