Donald Trump surprisingly announced a ceasefire in the Iran war on Tuesday. Image: keystone
analysis
The American president still agrees to negotiations with Iran about a peace plan – on the terms of the opponent, who also retains control of his most important trump card.
04/08/2026, 06:3004/08/2026, 06:30
Renzo Ruf, Washington
The announcement came 88 minutes before the ultimatum expired. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday night that he would initially suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks – provided that the regime in Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz “completely, immediately and safely” to shipping traffic, as he wrote on the Internet service Truth Social. In return, Tehran promised to suspend attacks on neighboring countries in the Middle East.
The ceasefire at a glance:
The planned campaign of destruction against civilian targets in Iran, which Trump announced in an exceptionally harsh statement on Tuesday, has been shelved. Instead, the American president will negotiate a peace plan with the help of mediators in Pakistan and China, and also based on ideas from Tehran. The White House also said that Israel would also adhere to the ceasefire – although Iran continued to fire rockets at Israel after Trump’s statement was published.
A strategic victory for Iran
Trump’s supporters immediately praised the president for his supposedly skillful negotiating style. Because he had built up such a massive threat, “Iran flinched first,” said television presenter Laura Ingraham on Fox News. Trump not only achieved his goals, but also gave the lie to his critics who recently described him as crazy.
In their initial reactions, independent observers pointed out that the ceasefire in the Iran war was linked to a clear condition: Iran must end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “completely” and “immediately”. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an initial statement in English that the safe passage of ships through the strait must be coordinated with the Iranian armed forces, taking “appropriate consideration of technical limitations.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.Image: keystone
This formulation suggests that Tehran is not giving up its trump card in this war: the Strait of Hormuz is currently controlled by Iran. This is a strategic victory for the regime’s remaining leaders and “simply catastrophic,” as Democratic Senator Chris Murphy said.
In addition, the Iranian government is notorious for playing for time. The 10-point plan, on the basis of which negotiations are now supposed to be carried out, contains, for example, the condition that all American sanctions against Iran should be ended. This is a maximum demand that will be rejected by large parts of the American Congress.
Has the president overstepped his bounds?
Meanwhile, Trump’s critics shook their heads at a president who (almost) always backs down at the crucial moment – and always when the pressure from stock market investors and energy traders becomes too great. Voices on the right and left pointed out on Tuesday that Trump’s method was slowly reaching its limits. This time the president had to threaten the destruction of “an entire civilization” in order to wrest concessions from a country that had already been largely defeated militarily.
Trump runs the risk that he will soon no longer be taken seriously, despite the effectiveness of the American armed forces. This could have catastrophic consequences in the next crisis. (aargauerzeitung.ch)