Donald Trump recently made another U-turn.Image: keystone
On Monday, US President Donald Trump made another U-turn in the Iran war and extended his ultimatum towards Tehran. Large bets in the USA now suggest insider trading.
Mar 24, 2026, 5:26 p.mMar 24, 2026, 5:26 p.m
It is well known that Donald Trump frequently changes his stance on geopolitical issues. But there could be a pattern behind these policy changes: His announcements often coincide with the opening and closing times of the financial markets – a circumstance that fuels speculation about possible insider trading.
The latest turnaround raises questions
On Saturday evening, March 21, the US President gave Tehran an ultimatum. He gave Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz and thereby restart the global economy. If Iran doesn’t do this, Trump threatened to attack Iran’s largest power plant.
The surprise followed on Monday morning – at least for all those who had not been informed by Trump beforehand. Shortly before the start of the stock market in the USA, the President lived up to his name TACO-Trump and gave Iran another five days. He justified his about-face by saying that there had been “very good and positive” discussions with Tehran. However, Iran rejected corresponding negotiation reports.
Suspicions of insider trading have arisen several times
It is not the first time that Trump has announced political U-turns during trading hours – and is apparently targeting the markets. CNN lists some examples in an analysis:
- Announcement of US tariffs on April 2, 2025: Trump’s press conference in Washington was actually scheduled for 4 p.m. (local time). However, he only announced the tariffs around half an hour later – shortly after the stock market closed at 4:30 p.m. The tariffs should then come into force on Saturday, April 5, 2025. The markets were also closed at this time. After a historically difficult week for the stock market, Trump wrote shortly after trading opened at 9:30 a.m. (local time): “NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!” The next day – with markets having fallen to their lowest level of the year – he announced a 90-day suspension of almost all tariffs above 10 percent. This gave share prices their best daily gain since 2008.
- Announcement of 130 percent tariffs on China: Trump also announced these tariffs 20 minutes after the markets closed on Friday, October 10, 2025. The tariffs were scheduled to come into force on Saturday, November 1 – again at a time when the markets were closed.
- Announcement on Greenland: On January 21, 20 minutes before the market opened, Trump announced during a trip abroad that he would not try to take Greenland with “excessive force.” The day before, share prices were at their lowest since last October.
- Also the previous ones Attacks on Iran in June 2025 as well as the Kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro Trump announced every weekend.
- The Attacks on Iran this year Trump made public on Saturday, February 28th.
It’s a tactic that companies often use: they release announcements before or after the market closes so that investors can digest news before decisions are made. Governments also often publish unpleasant news at off-peak times in order to keep public attention as low as possible. But Trump seems to be taking it to the extreme, as his recent decisions in the Iran war show.
Signs of insider trading on Monday
After Trump’s ultimatum on Saturday, the stock markets expected rising oil prices and falling stocks on Monday. Shortly before the opening in the USA, however, traders made large bets on falling oil prices. Shortly afterwards, the US President announced that he would give Iran another five days after negotiations. The markets then made a 180 degree turn.
According to research by the Financial Times, around 6,200 futures contracts for Brent and WTI oil changed hands on Monday morning between 6:49 and 6:50 New York time – around 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement. According to the newspaper, the total value is around $580 million. It is unclear who is behind the transactions.
This is “really unusual,” says a trader at a large hedge fund with over 25 years of market experience “Financial Times”. There was no important data and no obvious triggers that morning – “someone made a lot of money,” said the trader.
Exactly 14 minutes before Trump’s post on Truth Social, an exceptionally high bet was placed on the US stock index S&P 500 on the futures exchange in Chicago. This is reported by the Australian news site «news.com» citing the US stock exchange letter “The Kobeissi Letter”. The futures contracts were worth $1.5 billion and increased in value by $60 million within minutes of Trump’s announcement.
Market manipulation. The timing of Trump threats (usually Friday nights) then backing down (usually early Monday mornings) on war and tariffs tell you all you need to know. pic.twitter.com/JIt3X96UbA
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) March 23, 2026
Several accounts were betting on a ceasefire
Over the weekend, several accounts on the online betting platform Polymarket bet on a ceasefire between the USA and Iran. According to experts, this is also an indication of possible insider knowledge, reports “Guardian”.
As a result, some accounts appeared to belong to a single investor who was trying to conceal his identity by splitting his bets across multiple accounts. Ben Yorke, former researcher at Cointelegraph and now developer of an AI trading platform, explains to the Guardian:
“When one observes wallet splitting and deliberate attempts to conceal identity, it is typically one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to protect their position from market influences, or insider trading.”
Polymarket, whose investors include a venture capital firm owned by US President Donald Trump, has faced criticism and regulatory scrutiny. The company is accused of facilitating war profiteering and insider trading.
White House rejects allegations
Meanwhile, the White House does not want to know anything about the allegations. The president and his staff focused exclusively on doing “what is best for the American people,” a spokesman told the Financial Times. Government officials illegally profiting from insider knowledge will not be tolerated. Corresponding allegations without evidence are “baseless and irresponsible”.
Even if the suspicion of insider trading has been raised – and not just since yesterday – it is still unsubstantiated.
(With material from T-Online)