Moscow’s dictator friends will be abandoned by Putin in an emergency: Russian commentators came to this bitter realization after Maduro’s fall.
Jan 6, 2026, 6:48 p.mJan 6, 2026, 6:48 p.m
Bojan Stula / ch media
The overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro is increasingly seen in Russia as a serious strategic defeat for Moscow. Pro-Russian military bloggers and commentators openly speak of a failed claim to great power – and that Russia is currently too weak to be able to support even its closest allies.
It was not until May 2025 that Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and Vladimir Putin signed a support agreement in the Kremlin.Image: keystone
This is how prominent Russian voices are reckoning with the Kremlin’s foreign policy. On Telegram, journalist Maxim Kalashnikov describes Maduro’s case as the “collapse of the Russian leadership’s PR-driven foreign policy.” Around $20 billion disappeared into a “black hole” for Venezuela’s “pseudo-socialist regime” alone, with no benefit for Russia’s economic development or strategic interests.
There had already been similar bad investments in Syria. “Let’s create naval bases in Syria and Sudan for which there is no navy,” Kalashnikov sneers, referring to the now crippled naval base in Tartus, Syria.
1/ Vladimir Putin’s heavy investment in the regime of Venezuelan former President Nicolás Maduro has been a costly and disastrous failure, according to Russian commentators. They admit that Russia is too weak to stop its allies from being picked off one by one by the West. pic.twitter.com/olZHfW4vg7
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) January 4, 2026
At the same time, Moscow wasted crucial opportunities: instead of concentrating on its core goals in Ukraine, Russia squandered resources in distant regions. The result is sobering: Odessa, Kherson and Mikolayev remain under Ukrainian control, Transnistria is blocked, Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia is dwindling, while Finland and Sweden were able to join NATO. Kalashnikov speaks of an “autumn of the patriarch” – a barely veiled allusion to the dwindling power of Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin.
Blogger Alexander Kartawych also judges harshly. The Maduro regime was economically bankrupt and was not even able to pay its own security forces. He compares Russian loans and investments for Caracas to money that you “give to a homeless person in the hope that one day he will pay it all back.” His conclusion: write off losses and hold those responsible accountable.
“Assad can be happy that he escaped in time”
Other commentators also do not see the Maduro case as an isolated event. The blogger “Ghost of Novorossiya” refers to a chain of geopolitical setbacks: the fall of the Assad regime in Syria at the end of 2024, massive damage to Iran from US-Israeli attacks in the summer of 2025 – now Venezuela.
The West is taking targeted action against Russia’s weak allies in order to push back Moscow and Beijing without risking a direct, large-scale confrontation. Similar scenarios are also conceivable in Africa in the future. “The United States has given the whole world a concrete example of how to conduct targeted special operations for regime change,” writes the “Spirit” on Telegram.
The kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro is not only causing excitement among Russia’s military bloggers.Image: keystone
The analysis by the “Russian People’s Militia” (RND) is particularly ruthless. Russia is no longer able to effectively support partners in Latin America, Africa or the Middle East. There would be nothing more than diplomatic protests at the UN and writing off billions in “brotherly aid”. The fate of former allies is also bitterly commented on: ex-Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad is “sitting in front of the television in Moscow today” – and can be happy that he “escaped in time”.
“A draw would be a success”
There is no doubt that Maduro’s case has made it clear to many Russian war bloggers for the first time “how bad a state Russia really is,” as one analyst on X summarizes. Venezuela is unanimously viewed as Russia’s strategic defeat. It’s not just the investments that have been lost – “Russia’s future is at stake.” Allies such as Syria, Iran and Venezuela were lost or neutralized without Moscow being able to take real countermeasures.
Following the fall of Maduro, many Russian war bloggers are starting to realize in what bad shape Russia is. The events in Venezuela are unanimously considered a strategic Russian defeat, and they admit that Russia is currently too weak to help any Russian allies.
Not only the…
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 5, 2026
It is particularly significant that commentators like RND now define even a “draw” in the Ukraine war as a success: Russia must concentrate on getting out of the war at least without a clear defeat. Destinations like Kyiv, Kharkiv or Odessa are no longer realistic. That’s why the Kremlin is doing everything it can to conquer at least the rest of Donbas – in order to stage a kind of “partial victory” or at least a “draw”.
These selected voices on social networks certainly only reflect a part of the current Russian mood. Other Russian bloggers accuse the USA of double standards and see Maduro’s kidnapping as making the war of aggression against Ukraine all the more justified. Even the official mass media have to admit that Putin’s dictator friends can no longer count on help from the Kremlin in an emergency.
That’s how it represents “Moscow Times” Contritely stated in an editorial: “Vladimir Putin knew that he could not prevent (the US operation) Absolute Resolve. The immense effort in the war of attrition against Ukraine prohibits the use of resources for less important theaters, which Syria has already clearly demonstrated.” (aargauerzeitung.ch)