Disaster, disaster, disaster: With his own policies, Putin is thwarting a goal that he has been pursuing for 25 years.
Jan 5, 2026, 9:44 p.mJan 5, 2026, 9:44 p.m
Niklaus Vontobel / ch media
Vladimir Putin is currently failing miserably at a goal he has pursued for a quarter of a century. The Russian president is unable to stop his country’s population decline. He declared this to be a question of survival. In his first State of the Union address, Putin warned: “If the current trend continues, the survival of the nation is threatened. We run the risk of becoming a weak nation.”
Arrested in a mythologized past: Russian President Vladimir PutinImage: keystone
25 years, umpteen speeches and umpteen attempts later, population size remains a priority and a problem for Putin. In a speech in December he said: “It is our most important historical goal to preserve and increase our people.” But, according to Putin, all previous measures have been “inadequate”. “Unfortunately, the negative trend continues and the birth rate continues to fall.”
Experts agree with him, but some see more than just a “negative trend” in the birth rate in Russia. Many countries are currently experiencing something like this. They speak of “catastrophe” and “increasing signs of demographic collapse.” And what Putin is doing about it is so contradictory and nonsensical that “Putin’s policies are accelerating the decline.”
Only 90,500 births in February 2025
The demographic decline became very clear in the spring of 2025. The Russian statistics agency Rosstat had to deliver bad news. There were just 90,500 births in February – according to independent Russian demographer Alexey Raksha, this was probably the lowest monthly birth rate in more than two centuries.
Putin during his annual speech at the start of the new year.Image: keystone
Putin then did what autocrats like to do with unpleasant statistics: he stopped their publication. As the Moscow Times reports, Rosstat has stopped publishing data on births, deaths, immigration and the total population since the summer. Apparently the state cannot solve the problems, so it prefers to hide them.
“When autocrats begin to hide population data, they consider it not only embarrassing, but seriously worrying,” writes US professor Monica Duffy Toft in an article for the “Russia Matters” platform. The fact that Putin is now doing this is just the latest chapter in a long history of Russian denial of population development. “This gives rise to fears of dangerous consequences for regional stability.”
Immigrants sent to the front without boots
If there are fewer young people, at least the older ones should live longer. This would require a good health system. But the Russian one is a “disaster,” says Harley Balzer, a veteran Russia specialist and professor emeritus at Georgetown University. This was shown, for example, in the corona pandemic. Russia had the most or second most deaths in the world relative to population.
A wall with pictures of fallen Russian soldiers.Image: keystone
Migrants could help. Over the last three decades, they have offset the decline in the native population. But probably not today. According to the expert Balzer, Putin’s policy towards migrants was another “disaster”. The worst thing was the forced recruitment of people who came to Russia to work.
“Huge numbers of Central Asians were rounded up and sent to the front, some without equipment and not even boots,” says Balzer. Workers from India, Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh were lured under the pretext of being able to work in Russia. “Their passports were taken away and they were sent to the front.”
The war is also worsening the demographic crisis in other ways. According to the British Ministry of Defense, around 1,120,000 Russians have been killed or injured since the start of the war. Around 800,000 young, well-educated Russians have fled abroad to avoid recruitment.
The consequences of all this could still be seen in the official statistics for 2024. According to expert Toft, it is a “devastating picture”.
There is also a shortage of workers due to the war and the deaths. (symbol image)Image: keystone
According to Rosstat, deaths exceeded births by around 600,000 people in 2024. According to Toft, this is the largest natural decline since the corona pandemic. Russian companies were already short of around 2.2 million workers by the end of 2024, according to a study by the US think tank Carnegie. Almost 70 percent of the companies lacked workers.
As early as 2024, the defense industry was working in three shifts and required employees to work 60 to 70 hours per week, writes expert Balzer in a study on “Putin’s disastrous demographics”.
Collapse of the pension system is a real danger
Russia’s population has been shrinking for several decades. In 1994 it was 149 million people, today it is around 145 million. By the year 2100, there could be fewer people: According to The Economist magazine, there will only be 120 million people left, which would amount to a “nightmare”. Or the population could even halve to 74 million. That would be the UN’s most pessimistic forecast and, according to expert Balzer, entirely possible.
Over 18 percent of the population is over 65 years old.Image: keystone
The remaining population is aging rapidly. People aged 65 and over already make up over 18 percent of the population, which is an all-time high. According to the Carnegie Foundation, the burden on the pension and health systems is enormous. “Collapse is a very real danger.”
Russia’s demographic catastrophe was in itself predictable, says Balzer of the US think tank CSIS. Even in the early 1990s, when Putin met with US advisors as deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, he was not interested in economic development. “He wanted to talk about his mission to bring back the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire.”
And for that Putin needs a large population. “For him, Russia’s strength comes from an abundance of young soldiers,” writes Professor Toft. “Putin equates demographic mass with geopolitical power.”
There is no need for a mass of soldiers in the death zone
Putin is making a mistake in his thinking, says former Ukrainian general Volodymyr Haverlov. Today’s military advisor explained Ukrainian warfare in an interview with historian Philipps O’Brien. Civil society, including small and large tech companies, is crucial. They came up with the idea of relying on drones. And they are the ones who are constantly bringing about innovations and thus maintaining Ukraine’s technological lead.
The US government still believes the caricature of Russian propaganda.Image: keystone
By 2025, the front had become a “grey zone” of around 10 kilometers in which a soldier had up to 100 drones buzzing above him. Without knowing whether they were friend or enemy. And who would immediately discover him and make him a target. In this gray area you don’t need a mass of soldiers, but rather a few highly motivated, well-equipped and trained people. “And these small numbers will be more effective than any large military force.”
Donald Trump’s US government didn’t understand this, says Haverlov. She still believes the caricature of Russian propaganda that Russia is a bigger power and smaller countries have no chance. Haverlov simply says: “Pure disinformation, pure disinformation.” (aargauerzeitung.ch)
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