The war in Iran could be just right for Russia.Image: keystone
Ukraine urgently needs weapons and ammunition in the war against Russia. This is exactly what the USA could now need for its war against Iran. Experts warn of a strategic gift for Russia.
March 4, 2026, 2:37 p.mMarch 4, 2026, 2:37 p.m
Mauritius Kloft, Tobias Schibilla / t-online
The US-led war against Iran threatens to become a major test for American arms stocks – with consequences for Ukraine.
As Russian troops continue to shell Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, Kiev is now directly competing with Israel and U.S. forces in the Middle East for the same scarce anti-aircraft missiles and precision weapons.
There are already signs of a particular shortage of the Patriot, Nasams and Iris‑T air defense systems. These systems are expensive and ammunition production capacity is limited. The Iran war is putting a lot of strain on the supply chains: Given Tehran’s large missile and drone arsenal, the USA’s need for interceptor missiles is high.
However, it is precisely these ammunition – such as Patriot PAC‑3 interceptor missiles or Amraam missiles for Nasams – that are crucial to ensuring that Ukraine can fend off waves of Russian missiles and drones over Kiev, Kharkiv or Odessa.
The arms industry works extra shifts
The war in Ukraine has already emptied the warehouses of Western armies since 2022. The USA, Germany and other NATO countries had to realize that their stockpiles of anti-aircraft missiles, 155-millimeter artillery ammunition and precision guided weapons were designed for short, limited conflicts – not for years of wars of attrition.
Although at least European defense manufacturers are building new factories and increasing the capacity of their existing facilities, expanding production lines for complex guided missiles takes years, not months. This means that additional major conflicts, such as the war against Iran, have a direct impact on the availability of these systems.
The war comes at an inopportune time for Ukraine
From the Ukrainian perspective, the war in the Middle East is coming at an inopportune time. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned several times in recent days that a protracted war against Iran could jeopardize the supply of air defense missiles.
His concern: As long as the USA and its allies consume large quantities of defensive ammunition in the Middle East and station them there, fewer systems and the associated ammunition will be available to Ukraine – or at least they can only be delivered with a delay. This is particularly problematic because Ukraine has gained momentum in recent weeks and, according to reports from the US think tank “Institute for the Study of War”, has recaptured more territory than it has for a long time.
In addition, political priorities changed with Trump’s return to the White House last year. Military aid to Ukraine relies almost exclusively on European financing and longer-term procurement programs, while fewer weapons and ammunition come directly from US stocks.
This shifts responsibility and pressure to Europe: Berlin, Paris, Warsaw and other capitals must decide how many of their own systems to hand over to Ukraine. At the same time, they have to replenish their own stocks and think about the war in the Middle East and the resulting risks for Europe – such as possible attacks with ballistic missiles on targets in the east of the continent.
Attention from Washington shifts
So the West has a common but limited ammunition pool. As the former Australian Major General Mick Ryan writes in his blog “Futura Doctrina”, Western countries sometimes need identical or at least closely related ammunition for different crises.
This applies to anti-aircraft defense, but also to precision strikes. Air- and sea-launched precision bombs and cruise missiles are used in both the Middle East and Ukraine, for example for attacks on command posts, airfields and logistics. Bottlenecks also affect command and reconnaissance tools such as networked sensors and data interfaces, the number and integration of which are limited.
The longer the conflict with Iran lasts and the more intensively the USA and Israel remain militarily active there, the more the attention of political decision-makers in Washington shifts. The result is not an abrupt halting of aid to Ukraine, but rather a creeping competition for budget, production capacity and diplomatic focus. Israel, which is involved in the war against Iran, is also dependent on US arms deliveries.
“Ukraine could thus be demoted to a secondary front”
Colonel Markus Reisner also sees the problem. The Austrian military expert told n-tv: “A war waged by the USA and Israel that attracts attention and resources in the Middle East is a strategic gift for Russia and China” – even though Russia could end up losing an important ally in the Iranian regime.
Reisner fears that Russia could deepen its military and energy relations with a weakened Iran and exploit the West’s distraction in its war against Ukraine.
“China, on the other hand, can position itself as a responsible stabilizer or mediator, continue to buy energy at low prices and portray the USA as the main cause of global instability,” the military expert continued.
His fear: “Ukraine could be reduced to a secondary front. In the worst case scenario, this means even fewer resources, such as Patriot anti-aircraft missiles. Today, Ukraine’s individual allies would have to draw up prioritization lists of which arms deliveries are really “critical to the war” – and which ones will be postponed.
Drones came from Iran
This is exactly what the Kremlin is counting on: that the Western public and politicians will eventually become “war-weary” and that other trouble spots will come to the fore. Against this background, the question arises as to whether tensions in the Middle East could affect Russia’s use of key weapon systems such as the Shahed drone.
However, the impact of the Iran war on Russia’s drone capability is likely to be limited. Russia initially obtained the drones from Iran, but has been producing them in its own country since 2023 with Iranian support, said John Hardie from the “Foundation for Defense of Democracies” to the TV channel Euronews.
According to Ukrainian information, Russia deployed more than 54,500 Shahed drones in 2025, including 32,200 combat drones. Moscow is also testing further developed variants called “Geran-4” and “Geran-5”.
“Iran plays no role in Shahed’s supply chain”
The innovation cycle is less than eight weeks. However, many of the components identified did not come from Iran, but from China and Western countries. “Iran currently plays a minor or no role in Shahed’s supply chain,” Hardie continued.
The war against Iran does not create entirely new problems, but it does exacerbate existing bottlenecks. Whether this will significantly change the course of the war in Ukraine depends less on Tehran or Washington – but rather on whether Europe is prepared to close this gap and continue to support Ukraine at a high level despite the second front in the Middle East.