The US attack on Venezuela is fueling fears of a military strike in Tehran. The situation is already unsettled due to the mass protests.
Thomas Seibert, Istanbul / ch media
An oil-rich country with an anti-American government and a weak army – after the US strike against Venezuela, Iran’s leadership is growing fears that their country will be next on US President Donald Trump’s hit list. According to experts, there is “panic and concern” in Tehran. Just a few days ago, Trump threatened the Islamic Republic with a military strike. Tehran has also lost an important international partner in Nicolás Maduro.
Iran’s regime leader Ali Khamenei warns the USA of an attack at an event in Tehran.Image: keystone
Trump’s attack on Venezuela was “state terrorism,” said the Tehran government outraged. America is driving the “erosion and destruction” of the UN Charter. The common resistance against the USA has so far brought Iran and Venezuela together. Maduro signed a 20-year defense deal during a visit to Tehran in 2022. According to US allegations, his regime built Iranian drones and allowed the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia to set up a network in South America from Caracas.
The two countries also helped each other economically, emphasizes Iran expert Arman Mahmoudian from the University of South Florida. Venezuela bought some oil products from the Iranians and gave the internationally sanctioned regime in Tehran access to gold, as Mahmoudian tells CH Media. The cooperation was less about trade volume than about common political and strategic interests.
Hezbollah fighters.Image: keystone
Now the Iranian regime fears that the US coup in Venezuela could serve as a model for a similar American attack on Iran. Maduro’s fate is a serious blow for the mullahs, Iran expert Arash Azizi from Boston University tells CH Media. “By showing how bold and trigger-happy he is, Trump has emboldened Iran’s opponents and increased panic and concern among Tehran’s leadership.”
Nationwide protests against the economic crisis
The USA took part in the Israeli bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities in June. Since then, Trump has threatened new attacks several times, most recently a few days ago: If the Iranian government kills innocent demonstrators in the current protests, America is ready to help those opposed to the government, the US President warned. Iran’s regime leader Ali Khamenei rejected Trump’s threat and said his regime would “bring the enemy to his knees.”
The US President Donald Trump.Image: keystone
According to a report by the Iranian opposition broadcaster Iran International, at least 15 demonstrators and a member of a state militia have been killed in the protests, which were sparked by Iran’s economic misery and have been spreading for a week. On Sunday night, Trump wrote on his short message service Truth Social that, unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, he supported the protests in Iran. The Islamic Republic has the third largest oil and second largest gas reserves in the world.
Iran lacks strong international partners who could support it in the event of a US attack. China and Russia are allies, but they don’t want to upset the USA. Moscow is rejecting the delivery of modern combat aircraft demanded by Iran. Militarily, Iran is clearly inferior to the USA. The air force and anti-aircraft defense are outdated, as was shown in the June War of last year. At that time, Israel and the USA were able to bomb their targets in Iran without danger to their pilots.
With Trump you never know
The US Army has tens of thousands of soldiers stationed in the Middle East with strong Marine and Air Force formations; The largest US base in the region is in Qatar, directly across from Iran on the Persian Gulf. Added to this are the superpower’s capacities outside the Middle East. In the June war, Trump sent seven long-range bombers from the USA to Iran and also had Iranian nuclear facilities bombed with cruise missiles from submarines.
Khamenei cannot simply repeat the military attack against Maduro.Image: keystone
However, a strike to decapitate Iran’s leadership would be more difficult for the US than intervention in Venezuela. In Venezuela, Trump demonstrated his willingness to ignore previous taboos in American foreign policy, says Iran expert Mahmoudian. Nevertheless, the military strike in Caracas cannot simply be repeated in Tehran, he says.
Iran is almost twice the size of Venezuela and has three times as many inhabitants. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard with its missile arsenal is not a threat to the USA, but it is to Israel and other US partners in the region. If Trump tried to decapitate the Iranian regime with a military strike, Mahmoudian believes the risks for the USA would be significantly higher than in Venezuela: “A cascade of destabilization with the potential for a major war.” Nevertheless, with Trump you can never know “what he will do next”. (aargauerzeitung.ch)
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