Will he win the election on April 12th? Orban’s opponent Peter Magyar is clearly ahead in the polls.Image: keystone
Challenger Peter Magyar could score a landslide victory in two weeks. But Orban and his Fidesz party are not yet defeated. The most important questions and answers about the choice of fate in Hungary.
March 31, 2026, 1:15 p.mMarch 31, 2026, 1:19 p.m
Remo Hess, Budapest / ch media
What do the polls say before the election on April 12th?
Viktor Orban ruled Hungary with a two-thirds majority for 16 years. Now Peter Magyar’s opposition collective movement “Tisza” (Respect and Freedom) could replace him from power. The polls show a consistent double-digit lead. The Median Institute survey published a few days ago puts Tisza ahead of Orban’s Fidesz by 16 percentage points. Median is considered independent and reputable.
Peter Magyar speaks to supporters in Budapest.Image: keystone
So is the election already over?
No. Fidesz is a campaign machine and Orban has restructured the electoral law in his favor in recent years. Even if Tisza wins a popular majority, Orban could win a relative majority in parliament because of the distribution of constituencies.
Why is the election so important beyond Hungary?
Orban has had a strong influence on the EU in recent years with his veto policy. He has close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and has repeatedly blocked EU support policies for Ukraine. He is also a pioneer and leader for Europe’s right-wing populists. In the USA, President Donald Trump, a big friend of Orban, sits in the White House.
Why is Peter Magyar so popular?
As the husband of Orban’s Justice Minister Judit Varga, Magyar himself was a Fidesz insider for a long time. However, after a cover-up scandal about child abuse, Magyar broke with Fidesz in 2024. Since then he has been touring the country almost non-stop. He managed to unite the fragmented opposition. In his campaign he promises to end systemic corruption. He also wants to repair the relationship with Europe and get the blocked EU funds back.
What is Orban doing wrong?
The country is doing poorly economically. The cost of living has risen sharply. There are also serious deficiencies in the health system, the transport system and the school system. Among those under 30, between 70 and 80 percent reject Fidesz. Orban’s campaign does not address these issues. Instead, she focuses solely on the EU and Ukraine, which she accuses of a “conspiracy” against Hungary.
Victor Orban warns of the consequences of his deselection.Image: keystone
What role does Russia play?
There are credible reports that Russia is actively playing a role in the election campaign. Agents from the Russian foreign secret service are said to have suggested staging an assassination attempt on Orban and helping him with the campaign. Szabolcs Panyi, the country’s best-known investigative journalist, has now been charged by the government with espionage in connection with his Russia reporting. (aargauerzeitung.ch/nil)