JD Vance’s electoral support for Viktor Orban mainly helped the opposition.Image: keystone
analysis
After 16 years, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has to step down. His defeat is a warning signal for Moscow and Washington – and Europe’s right-wing parties.
April 12, 2026, 11:38 p.mApril 12, 2026, 11:38 p.m
At least he showed greatness: When the counting in the Hungarian parliamentary election was still in full swing, Viktor Orban stood in front of the supporters of his Fidesz party and acknowledged his defeat. It was “painful but clear,” said the long-term head of government. He had previously personally congratulated challenger Peter Magyar on his election victory.
Not all observers believed Orban would adopt this conciliatory attitude. In his 16 years in power, most of them with a two-thirds majority in parliament, he had transformed Hungary into an “illiberal democracy” and filled state institutions with followers. Now this system seems to have turned against him.
Election winner Peter Magyar speaks to his supporters late on Sunday evening.Image: keystone
The clear result did not come as a surprise. In the surveys of those institutes that are considered trustworthy, the lead of Magyar’s Tisza party had not decreased, but had steadily increased. Added to this was the record high voter turnout. It made it clear that the mood of change perceived by observers in Hungary was not imaginary.
Foreign policy hero figure
Of course it wasn’t: the charismatic Viktor Orban acted above the weight class of his small country when it came to foreign policy. This made him a hero for the “International of Nationalists” and also earned him a lot of recognition from his compatriots. This is also why he has won elections four times since 2010.
In the end, Orban had lost all his trump cards. His domestic political record was disastrous. The corruption was shameless and reached into Orban’s environment. The luxurious property not far from his birthplace, which supposedly belongs to his father, outraged many Hungarians who have to deal with run-down hospitals and schools in their everyday lives.
Hungary trusts the EU
Due to a lack of success at home, the head of government tried to express resentment against Brussels and especially Ukraine. But this time the stitch didn’t get caught. A survey of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) showed that Hungarians hardly trust any institution more than the European Union. Only 15 percent reject it.
During the election campaign, Orban stirred up fears of war, but the ploy no longer worked.Image: keystone
This played into the hands of Peter Magyar. He denounced the grievances and promised to “repair” the relationship with the EU. So no blockages like Orban’s veto against the 90 billion loan for Ukraine. No wonder: He wants the EU to release the 18 billion euros that it blocked because of Orban’s attacks on the rule of law.
The ideal opponent
Ultimately, this election was less about worldview and, as is so often the case, about money. And yet Magyar was the ideal opponent. He was a long-time supporter of Orban and was electable to former Fidesz supporters. And unlike previous opposition candidates, he toured the whole country and even visited Fidesz strongholds.
Above all, however, Magyar and the Tisza party appear fresh, which made them “palatable” to pre-urban voters who have little use for his conservative profile. This created the constellation to vote out Viktor Orban, even if only more or less right-wing parties will be in the Budapest parliament.
Another bankruptcy for Trump
But the result also has a global impact. It is a resounding slap in the face, especially for Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Both had openly speculated on another term in office for Orban. But his shameless ingratiation with Putin became a mortgage. During the election campaign, Orban was insulted as a “Russian” by his opponents.
Peter Magyar completed an elaborate grassroots election campaign. It paid off.Image: keystone
The defeat for the US President is almost worse. It wasn’t the first time that his interference in other countries’ elections turned out to be a non-starter. Vice President JD Vance’s appearance in Budapest a few days before the election was simply outrageous and probably counterproductive. He was the best advertisement for Tisza.
It won’t be easy
And ultimately the result is a disillusionment for Europe’s far right. Alice Weidel, Matteo Salvini, Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen campaigned for Orban in the election campaign, sometimes with personal appearances. Now they have to realize: When the electorate is angry, an illiberal democracy does not help against defeat.
It is more than clear. With the two-thirds majority he apparently won, Magyar can restore the democratic institutions that Orban has reduced to a facade. It won’t be an easy exercise. Until power is handed over, Viktor Orban still has a few opportunities to make life difficult for his successor.
One has to hope that his conciliatory appearance wasn’t just for show. Experts in the Central European country complain that Hungary has been on the wrong side of history too often in the past. His electorate proved on Sunday that there is another way.