interview
In Hungary, Trump buddy Viktor Orbán tailored the system to his party. Nevertheless, a change of power can begin next election Sunday. In an interview, Hungary expert Zoltán Tibor Pállinger explains what it takes and says why the visit of US Vice President JD Vance will do little to change the election result.
04/10/2026, 06:1004/10/2026, 06:10
Zoltán Tibor Pállinger’s Sunday program has been set for months: in Budapest’s constituency 2, he will have a say at the ballot box on the composition of the Hungarian parliament. This is to be understood literally. Hungary does not have postal voting domestically. That’s why millions of Hungarians will turn out on Sunday to submit their electoral lists. For Pállinger, a Swiss-Hungarian political scientist, it is clear: Despite Viktor Orbán’s autocratic efforts, Hungary has the power to bring about political change.
Mr. Pállinger, Viktor Orbán proclaimed “illiberal democracy” in Hungary; the former EU Commission President once greeted him as a “dictator”. Do your ballots count even if you don’t vote for his Fidesz party?
You are now assuming that I don’t vote for Fidesz! Regardless of my voting decision, my votes will count. There are electoral commissions in each electoral district that must follow a relatively detailed protocol. The ballot boxes will also be sealed before the ballot and the counting will be carried out under observation. Election observers are also present during the counting. So the election process is relatively clean. Other things have a greater impact on freedom of choice.
What?
There are social pressures. This is particularly important in smaller communities where many people depend on government job creation programs. In some cases there is also electoral fraud with so-called chain elections, in which already completed ballot papers are secretly passed on. Nevertheless, I share the assessment of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has repeatedly stated that the elections in Hungary are free but not fair.
That’s why the elections in Hungary are so important
For the first time in 16 years, there is a chance that an opposition party, Tisza, will win the parliamentary elections in Hungary. Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz has been in power since 2010 and is pursuing a conservative, anti-migration and authoritarian course. Orbán is considered a role model for right-wing populist ideologies worldwide, including the MAGA movement – which is why Orbán’s electoral defeat would not be in the spirit of US President Donald Trump. At the European level, Hungary has an important role to play: under Orbán, the country repeatedly blocked EU sanctions against Russia, which is waging war against Ukraine.
For example, the Hungarian media is in the hands of Orbán loyalists and reports accordingly.
This is actually an unfair advantage for Fidesz. The public media and a large part of the print media are very close to the government. The system also heavily distorts the election in favor of the majority party: of the 199 parliamentary seats, 106 are allocated in so-called single constituencies. Whoever gets the most votes wins. Fidesz has changed the layout of the constituencies so that it has an advantage. The remaining 93 seats will be distributed proportionately as part of a list election. The decisive factor here is the national strength of the parties.
Orbán’s party is currently lagging behind Péter Magyar and his Tisza, which is taking a centrist, more Europe-friendly course and wants to modernize the infrastructure. How clearly would she have to win for this?
You’re asking a complicated question. For a majority in parliament, Tisza would have to win the list election with a lead of three to four percent. A narrow majority is not enough.
Peter Magyar at a march to mark Hungarian National Day.Image: EPA MTI
Why?
Fidesz has built a system that protects them. The party has put together a constitution in which certain laws can only be changed with a two-thirds majority. This applies to the election of local parliaments or regulations regarding the publication of political advertising during election campaigns. Then Fidesz also created a budget council. If he does not approve the budget, the president – also a Fidesz politician – can dissolve parliament. As you can see, governing with a simple majority is relatively difficult.
In other words: The Tisza should win clearly. And reform the system over the years. Correct?
Depends on. If the Tisza achieves a two-thirds majority, things can happen very quickly. Orbán achieved this in 2010. He was then able to quickly change the constitution. It’s entirely possible that the Tisza can do that too. But even if the result remains below this value, there is a positive scenario: namely, that a system is formed with two large parties that have to keep each other in check and seek compromises.
“There is a greater mood of change in Hungary than there was a few years ago.”
Are the hurdles just as high for Peter Magyar to replace Orbán as prime minister after an election victory?
A majority in the constituent session of the new parliament is sufficient to replace Orbán. But if that cannot be found, Orbán can continue to govern as acting prime minister. If it is not possible to elect a prime minister within 40 days, the president can dissolve parliament. It is currently assumed that three parties will enter parliament: Fidesz, Tisza and Mi Hazánk, a small right-wing extremist party. It could tip the scales in favor of Orbán.
Is there a risk that Orbán will not accept the election result after a defeat or will question the legitimacy of the election à la Trump?
On a symbolic level, he would question defeat. In 2002, after a Fidesz election defeat, he famously said: “The nation cannot be in the minority.” If there is a legal opportunity to challenge a Tisza victory, he will do so. But one must not forget: Orbán is a lawyer and attaches great importance to formal regulations. Precisely because Fidesz helped shape many of the current laws. Therefore, he would definitely accept an election defeat.
Viktor Orbán would have liked personal support from Donald Trump. But US Vice President JD Vance came.Image: AP Pool Reuters
On Tuesday, JD Vance was in Budapest and showed himself to be a supporter of Viktor Orbán. Can this kind of influence influence election Sunday in favor of Fidesz?
I generally don’t believe that external influences are decisive in a match. We have seen a stable picture for months: Tisza is leading, Fidesz is lagging behind. The election campaign is no longer about convincing undecided people, but rather about mobilizing your own supporters. Vance’s appearance may bring certain Fidesz supporters to the polls, but the numerous roadblocks to the vice president’s journey have angered many people, especially in Budapest.
What decides the choice?
There is a greater mood of change in Hungary than there was a few years ago. People are doing worse economically. Corruption is an issue again. And Fidesz has been damaged by scandals, such as the pardon of a man convicted of covering up sexual abuse in a children’s home. In addition, Orbán’s story that the EU wants a war with Russia has turned out to be false. And in Magyar he now has a credible opponent.
But is he? Magyar was himself a Fidesz member, as was his ex-wife, who was justice minister.
There are reservations about him, such as his character. But he comes from a respected family of lawyers and, in contrast to the previous opposition, is not left-wing, but a modern conservative. This makes it acceptable to many Hungarians, most of whom are conservative themselves. And now he is also being accepted for his break with Fidesz.
About the person: Zoltán Tibor Pállinger
Zoltán Tibor Pállinger is a dual Swiss-Hungarian citizen and grew up in Winterthur. The 59-year-old received his doctorate at the University of St. Gallen, where he later held a teaching position. Among other things, he lectured at ETH Zurich and researches the Hungarian system. Since 2007 he has headed the Chair of Political Theory and European Democracy Studies at Andrássy University in Budapest. The private university is supported by Germany, Austria, Hungary and the German states of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria and has a partnership with the University of St. Gallen.
image: Photo Berzay
How do you think the elections will turn out?
I’m unsure. It is not unlikely that we will not have a result on Monday because there are still objections in the individual constituencies. If you believe the election polls, Tisza will win. The surveys are unreliable.
Now back to you: Fidesz has abolished the independence of many universities in Hungary, but you teach at a private institution that Germany and Austria also support. Do you have to expect repression after this interview?
There are some attacks on social media. Often by trolls, but also people close to Fidesz. However, we have independent status and can research, publish and give interviews freely.
Who will you vote for on Sunday?
I am pleased to be able to cast my vote on Sunday for the party that will ensure that Hungary has a successful European future.