US President Donald Trump: Does he care about rising oil prices?image: IMAGO/Celal Gunes/imago-images-bilder
So far, the markets have reacted cautiously to the Iran war. According to the bank Goldman Sachs, things will look different next week.
March 8, 2026, 6:26 p.mMarch 8, 2026, 6:26 p.m
Amy Walker / t-online
“The grace period for the Trump administration expired at the end of the week,” said analyst Clayton Seigle at the Center for Strategic and International Studies to the British newspaper “The Guardian” on Sunday. What is meant is the grace period of the global energy markets, which reacted in the first week of the Iran war, but with less panic than many experts expected.
That should be over now, because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and there is no end in sight. This means that a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG export volumes do not reach the world. The Gulf states have to replenish their own reserves instead of filling freighters – but these capacities are also finite. So far, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have announced production cuts for oil and gas, and in some cases “force majeure” has already been declared.
“Force Majeure”
“Force majeure” is a contractual clause that can exempt a contractual partner from fulfilling the contract. This means that the contractual partner is not liable if he cannot fulfill the agreed services. It is drawn if unforeseeable, external, unavoidable events occur that make the fulfillment of the contract impossible. These include wars, pandemics or other natural disasters.
Trump doesn’t seem to care about high oil prices
Seigle explains to the Guardian that there is currently a shortage of 20 million barrels of oil per day on the global oil market. And there are no signs of the situation easing. «On the contrary: President Trump is calling for unconditional surrender, which is an extremely unlikely scenario. While observers may have initially thought his indifference to painfully high oil prices was a bluff, it is now clear that this is not the case.
The bank Goldman Sachs therefore warned on Friday that oil prices would continue to rise in the coming week. The $100 per barrel mark could be reached within a few days. If the blockage continues until the end of the month, prices of more than 150 US dollars are realistic.
“We now also assume that oil prices – particularly for refined products – would exceed the highs of 2008 and 2022 if transport flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain subdued throughout March,” several media outlets quoted the bank as saying. In 2022, oil prices climbed to $120 per barrel after the outbreak of the Ukraine war; In 2008 the high was reached at $145.
Gas prices are also climbing
And it’s also shaping up to be a turbulent week for gas prices. According to Reuters, LNG production in Qatar will be paused for at least two weeks. If the conflict comes to an end in the next few days, it would take at least as long to restart production. Market observers must therefore already assume that 17 percent of global LNG availability will be lost for at least four weeks.
The hardest hit area is currently Asia, where most of the buyers for oil and gas come from the Gulf region. Countries like China, Japan and India are now looking for alternatives on world markets, which will sooner or later be reflected in European prices. Energy economist Anne-Sophie Corbeau from Columbia University told The Economist magazine that she expected panic on the markets if there were no signs of relief from Monday. Gas prices beyond the 90 francs/megawatt hour mark can then be expected. Before the Iran War, wholesale gas prices were below 27 francs/MWh.
Other analysts also expect significant price fluctuations if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a longer period of time. The specialist portal “Montel” surveyed several consulting companies that expect prices between 60 and 70 francs/MWh if the crisis lasts at least four weeks. If it’s more like three months, up to 100 francs/Mwh is realistic.
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