Fearing oil shortages, people in Peshawar, Pakistan, are queuing up with their vehicles at gas stations.Image: keystone
As a result of the Iran war, the price of oil has risen to over $100 for the first time in years. This has far-reaching consequences.
Mar 9, 2026, 7:35 a.mMar 9, 2026, 7:35 a.m
What is happening to the price of oil?
The price of Brent, the most important North Sea variety in Europe, temporarily rose by around 20 percent to 111 US dollars per barrel (159 liters) in early trading. In Asian trading, Brent futures briefly rose to $119.04
Previously, at the start of trading in Chicago, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the dominant grade in the USA, had jumped above the $100 mark – a price level that was last seen in 2022. At times the price even rose to $115 per barrel.
On Friday afternoon, Brent crude oil for delivery in May was still trading at over $90. Since the start of the Iran war a little over a week ago, the increase is now around 50 percent: at the end of February the price was still around $70 per barrel. Fuel prices have also risen significantly since then.
Stock market prices in East Asia then collapsed.
What impact does this have on the stock market?
In Tokyo, the Nikkei index of 225 leading stocks fell around 7 percent in early trading. Around 25 minutes after the start of trading, the leading Asian index was trading at a whopping minus of 3,409.92 points or 6.13 percent with an intermediate level of 52,210.92 points.
The stock exchange in South Korea also recorded heavy losses. In Seoul, the KOSPI temporarily recorded a loss of 8.4 percent after the start of trading.
What is the situation in Switzerland?
For the Swiss stock market, the pre-market indications from broker IG currently indicate losses of 1.2 percent. The most important European stock exchanges are likely to start at a similarly rapid pace.
What are the effects on currencies?
The increasing uncertainty also has further effects on the foreign exchange market. The US dollar continues to rise as the world reserve currency. At the same time, the franc continues to be sought after as the ultimate safe haven. As a result, the euro/franc pair briefly fell below the 90 centime mark in the morning. This is likely to put further pressure on the Swiss National Bank.
What should happen next?
Fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain a dominant theme in the oil market. Since the American-Israeli attacks on Iran, hardly any ships pass through the strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. During peacetime, around a fifth of the world’s oil trade is transported through these every day. It is also very important for the transport of liquid gas, for example from Qatar.
The global economy remains dependent on the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz, wrote Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. In his opinion, the price of oil could rise to up to $120 per barrel in the short term. If the conflict continues, the price of oil could rise sustainably above $120 and trigger a global recession. Such a scenario could reduce global economic growth by 0.6 percentage points in the first half of the year and raise consumer prices by one percentage point, said Kasman.
US President Donald Trump, for whom rising fuel prices could become a problem with a view to the important midterm elections in the fall, tried to focus on long-term developments: “The short-term oil prices, which will fall rapidly after the elimination of the nuclear threat from Iran, are a very small price to pay for the security and peace of the USA and the world,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Only idiots would see it differently,” he added.
At the end of last week, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned in an interview with the Financial Times of the serious consequences of the war in the Middle East for deliveries of energy raw materials from the region. It is feared that all producing states in the Persian Gulf could stop production within a few weeks. According to the minister’s assessment, an increase in the price of oil up to 150 US dollars is then possible.
Due to the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, producers in the Persian Gulf are partly running out of storage capacity. According to media reports, Kuwait has already reduced its production. (sda/dpa/con)