The USA kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Now the question remains what happens now.Image: keystone
analysis
The military action was successful. But what next?
Jan 4, 2026, 1:12 p.mJan 4, 2026, 1:32 p.m
Juan Pérez Alfonso was once the foreign minister of Venezuela and co-founder of OPEC, the association of oil producing countries. The legendary quote comes from him: “The oil is the feces of the devil.”
His words would prove prophetic. Thanks to its oil wealth – Venezuela has the largest known oil reserves in the world – his country has been enslaved by a pseudo-socialist dictatorship in recent decades. Now it threatens to become a colony of American oil imperialism for an indefinite period of time, or in the worst case scenario, to degenerate into a failed state.
Arrested: Nicolás Maduro.Image: keystone
The operation to arrest the dictator Nicolás Maduro was a spectacular success. However, it puts President Donald Trump in the same situation that George W. Bush found himself in after the successful campaign against Saddam Hussein. His Secretary of State Colin Powell told him at the time: “They broke the country, now they own it.”
The USA has not had good experiences with this strategy. “If there is one overarching lesson from American foreign policy over the past century, it is that overthrowing even the worst regimes has only made things worse,” the New York Times noted in an editorial commentary.
Needless to say, this is not the prevailing opinion in the White House. At his press conference on Saturday, Trump said: “We will govern the country until we are sure there is a safe and just transition.”
The US President is only vague about what this transition should look like. In the magazine “Foreign Affairs” Francisco Rodríguez presents a possible variant. He was economic advisor to the Parliament of Venezuela between 2000 and 2004 and has written three books about his country.
Joy at the fall of Maduro.Image: keystone
The fact that the military operation went so smoothly suggests to Rodriguez that the Americans had secret support from their Venezuelan counterparts. “That doesn’t mean that the entire regime has stabbed Maduro in the back,” said Rodriguez. “But it suggests that there was something like a palace revolution.”
Trump never used the word “democracy” at his press conference. He also threw María Corina Machado, the opposition leader who was recently honored with the Nobel Peace Prize, under the bus. Although she is a nice woman, she does not have enough respect among the population, said Trump.
This may indicate that Trump has made a secret deal with at least parts of the Maduro regime and wants to work with current Vice President Delcy Rodríguez. Should there still be resistance, the president has already threatened further military action and has even promised ground troops. Because Venezuela’s army is in poor condition, he doesn’t have to expect too much resistance.
However, this does not mean that the soup has already been eaten. “Venezuela is a large country (half the size of Germany), with a large population (around 30 million people) and many active paramilitary and criminal groups,” said Rodríguez. “It is a place that could very easily fall into anarchy.”
Protest against the military action in New York.Image: keystone
A comparison with Libya comes to mind. In March 2011, a NATO-led military intervention led to the overthrow of then-dictator Muammar Gaddafi. However, Western support was limited to the Air Force and then US President Barack Obama spoke of “leading from the background”. The result is anything but encouraging: Libya remains an unstable and anarchist country dominated by two rival groups.
There are good reasons that Venezuela faces the same fate:
- Trump spoke a lot at the press conference but said little. There was no clear strategy apparent from his remarks. He and his foreign minister even contradicted each other. Marco Rubio spoke of a police operation that led to the arrest of the Maduro criminal couple, who were wanted in the USA. The president, on the other hand, stated, as mentioned, that it was about governing Venezuela.
- With this action, Trump broke one of his central campaign promises. There will be no “regime change” under him, he has assured again and again. That’s exactly what he’s done now. The fact that he unconstitutionally bypassed Congress may be a smaller problem. However, how the MAGA base will react to this may soon give him a very bad stomach ache.
- Trump has also promised that the US no longer wants to be the world’s policeman. Paradoxically, however, he is about to transform his country into a global super-sheriff. He sends troops to Israel, threatens Iran, has special forces carry out operations in Nigeria, announces actions against drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia, wants to incorporate Greenland and turn Canada into the 51st US state.
- At the same time, Trump has thinned out the necessary state apparatus. The National Security Council, once a body of 300 experts, is now a lost group of a dozen people. Instead, Trump surrounds himself with dilettantes like Steve Witkoff and idiots like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
A circulating conspiracy theory suggests that Trump coordinated his actions with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The goal is for the USA to dominate its backyard of Central and South America, Russia to let off steam in Europe and China to annex Taiwan. Like most conspiracy theories, this one may also contain some truth. However, there is a big gap between theory and reality.
Specifically, in the words of Rodriguez, this means the following in relation to the events of the last few days in Venezuela: “The opposition hoped that with the expulsion of the autocrats there would be freedom and autonomy for the people of Venezuela. Now it may turn out that the Maduro regime is still in control and has an oil deal with the US on its hands. It’s the antithesis of what people wanted.”