Today, a 600-kilogram NASA probe crashes uncontrollably to Earth – eight years earlier than expected. Where the rubble will fall remains unclear.
March 10, 2026, 5:45 p.mMarch 10, 2026, 5:45 p.m
Marcel Horzenek / t-online
A NASA research probe has ended its time in Earth orbit around eight years earlier than planned: According to the US space agency, the Van Allen Probe A is scheduled to enter the Earth’s atmosphere uncontrolled this Tuesday at around 11:45 p.m. German time. The time window for re-entry extends up to 24 hours in both directions. NASA and the US Space Force are monitoring the process and continually updating their forecasts.
Van Allen probes A and B: The data they collected are still used in space weather research today.image: NASA
Active sun accelerates the fall
Originally, both Van Allen probes were not scheduled to return to Earth until 2034. When the mission ended in 2019, scientists were still operating on this schedule. But the current solar cycle was far more active than expected: As NASA reports, the sun reached its solar maximum in 2024, triggering intense space weather events.
This activity caused Earth’s atmosphere to expand more, increasing drag for spacecraft in low orbits. As a result, the Van Allen probe A was decelerated faster than calculated – and now hits Earth much earlier.
Seven years of measurements in a dangerous region
The Van Allen Probes A and B launched on August 30, 2012. They were originally designed to last only two years, but in fact they collected data for almost seven years. They are named after the physicist James Van Allen, who discovered the Earth’s radiation belts named after him. These belts are made up of charged particles trapped in the Earth’s magnetic field. They protect the Earth from cosmic radiation and the solar wind. However, the radiation belts are dangerous for astronauts and electronic devices – which is why spacecraft usually traverse this zone as quickly as possible.
According to NASA, the Van Allen probes were the first spacecraft designed specifically to operate there for several years and provide measurement data. The NASA program, managed by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, achieved several significant findings. These included the first evidence of a temporary third radiation belt that can form during periods of strong solar activity.
The data collected is still used today in space weather research and helps predict how solar storms can affect satellites, astronauts and infrastructure on Earth – such as communications, navigation and power networks.
Low danger to people on Earth
The spacecraft weighs around 600 kilograms. According to NASA, most of it will burn up when it enters the atmosphere. However, individual components could survive the re-entry and hit the earth’s surface. The authorities put the risk of a person being harmed at around 1 in 4,200. Since around 70 percent of the Earth is covered by water, NASA estimates that remains of this species are very likely to end up in the open ocean.
Where exactly the rubble will fall can only be reliably determined shortly before the event. The sister probe, Van Allen Sample B, is not expected to enter the Earth’s atmosphere until 2030 at the earliest.
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