March 3, 2026, 2:46 p.mMarch 3, 2026, 2:46 p.m
Politically, Moscow condemns the attack on Iran by the USA and Israel – but economically the country hopes to benefit from it.
The Kremlin-affiliated newspaper “Izvestia”, citing industry experts, predicts an increase in budget revenues due to higher oil and gas exports.
“The experts agree that the Russian budget can expect higher oil and gas revenues if the conflict in the Middle East continues,” the paper says. The conflict is considered ongoing if it lasts longer than two months.
Higher production volumes and rising oil prices are likely to contribute to boosting revenue. When it comes to gas exports, the Turkstream and Blue Stream pipelines, through which Russian gas reaches Turkey – and from there partly on to Europe – are considered to be particularly expandable. The capacity of both lines is 47.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year. They weren’t even half full in 2025.
When it comes to oil, China and India, which recently drastically reduced its purchases of Russian oil, are seen as buyers in an increasingly fierce competition. China could purchase up to half a million barrels more oil per day, says lecturer Valery Andriyanov from the Financial University, which is subordinate to the Russian government.
If the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for global shipping, are blocked, the price of oil could skyrocket to more than $100 per barrel, the analysis says. The discount due to Western sanctions on oil from the Russian Urals brand will decrease.
Russia’s budget under pressure
The paper did not predict exactly how this would affect the budget in numbers. Russia had actually expected a deficit of the equivalent of around 38 billion francs this year. However, the Ministry of Finance had to report a loss of around 17 billion francs in January due to falling oil and gas revenues, which severely unsettled the budget planning. The latest developments are likely to stabilize budget planning.
A large part of the expenditure in the Russian budget is consumed by the war against Ukraine. Around 164 billion francs are planned for the military, armaments, national security and police forces – that corresponds to almost 40 percent of total expenditure. (hkl/sda/dpa)