Ursula von der Leyen isn’t happy, but that’s a political hit the Government calculated was worth taking in opposing the EU–Mercosur trade deal.
But the head of the European Commission is not the only one displeased at Ireland.
What may have been deemed a necessity of Coalition politics at home was viewed in Brussels as a decision that did real damage to Ireland’s sway in Europe, perhaps more than is appreciated in Dublin.
The trade agreement was provisionally approved by EU states on Friday, despite the opposition of Ireland, France and three other countries.
The No vote will be remembered by other EU capitals, who regard the free trade deal with the South American bloc as vital to shoring up Europe’s economic and geopolitical power, in an increasingly hostile world.
Senior figures in the European Commission are disappointed the Government did not make the case for the economic upsides of the deal, particularly given Ireland’s reputation as being pro free trade.
There is a broad view among officials inside the EU’s powerful executive arm that this one will dent Ireland’s standing. It is understood von der Leyen privately expressed her annoyance at the Irish decision.
The internal, fudgy politics of the EU work on the basis of compromise and give and take.
Several EU officials in Brussels pointed to the extension of Ireland’s nitrates derogation on fertiliser spreading late last year – seen as crucial for dairy farmers – as an example of leeway the commission gave Dublin.
A win there doesn’t bind you to walk through the voting lobby a certain way on another issue. However, voting against the broader European interest, for narrow domestic political reasons, is noted by others.
Diplomats from other capitals still talk about the huge solidarity the union showed Ireland during Brexit. That kind of stuff is not a one-way street.
The Mercosur agreement looked to have sufficient support to get over the line for several weeks. The prospects of blocking it faded once Italy seemed likely to swing in behind the deal.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin appeared to be laying the ground for a reluctant Irish vote in favour of the pact, given the thing was going to pass anyway.
In the end, Ireland stayed put and opposed the deal, alongside France, Poland, Austria and Hungary.
While some in Government recognise there will be a need to “make it up to Brussels”, others say Ireland should not be shy in standing up and throwing its weight around a bit sometimes.
One can puff one’s chest out if one is a big player such as France and Germany. Italy too – maybe even Spain and Poland.
But Ireland is not France. As a small member state, one has to be pretty tactical and calculated to manage what influence one has, or that will be quickly squandered.
The State might be a net contributor to the EU budget, but Dublin shouldn’t confuse that with a licence to do what it wants.
The Government’s opposition to Mercosur will be “pretty damaging” to its standing, one senior commission source said. Another experienced commission official said Ireland was perceived as “playing small politics” and bowing to “scaremongering” on beef.
[ EU governments approve landmark Mercosur trade dealOpens in new window ]
What is the Mercosur trade deal?
Who is for and against it?
Fans of the deal say it offers access to new markets and helps combat US tariffs. In Ireland, France and Poland, farmers fear more beef coming into the EU.
The programme for government codified Ireland’s opposition to Mercosur, committing it to “work with like-minded EU countries” in opposing the deal.
The reality is the deal will not be catastrophic for beef farmers, as some quarters have warned. Indeed, it will open up a big new market for Irish businesses, including the agriculture sector.
Running a well-managed EU presidency in the second half of this year will help Ireland to earn trust back.
The past year has shown the United States cannot be relied upon as the partner it once was. So the EU has been rushing to make friends elsewhere. The Mercosur deal faltering would have hugely harmed Europe’s ambitions to be seen as a serious global player.
Ironically, there was probably a sigh of relief in Government upon hearing the Mercosur agreement had been approved. The fallout from European allies would have been massively magnified if Ireland’s vote had helped kill it.