Marine Le Pen speaks of an election victory, but her own political future still depends on the outcome of a corruption trial against her.Image: keystone
The populists Le Pen and Mélenchon are ahead in the municipal elections in France. You can thank President Macron. His camp is practically collapsing.
Mar 16, 2026, 9:41 p.mMar 16, 2026, 9:41 p.m
After the first round of French municipal elections, right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen claims an “immense victory” for her Rassemblement National (RN). In Perpignan, not far from Spain, RN local candidate Louis Aliot was confirmed in office with 51 percent of the vote. Marine Le Pen’s party also has good chances for the runoff next Sunday in Toulon, the military port on the Côte d’Azur, and in Nice.
The election campaign took place in a feverish atmosphere in Marseille, the Mediterranean metropolis with an oriental flair and murderous drug cartels. The RN candidate Franck Allisio comes within one and a half percent of the socialist mayor Benoît Payan (36.70%).
The seizure of power by the right-wing extremists would turn Marseille into a “cauldron,” as political scientist Alain Duhamel fears. However, the outcome of the election depends on the waivers by outsiders. The fourth-placed candidate of La France insoumise (LFI), Sébastien Delogu, a convicted ex-taxi driver from the immigrant neighborhoods of North Marseille, is calling for an “anti-fascist front” against the RN candidate.
Emmanuel Macron before casting his vote in the local elections.Image: keystone
City mayor Payan, a moderate social democrat, is in a bind: Either he sells out to the LFI and its very dominant founder Jean-Luc Mélenchon – or he is threatened with electoral defeat against the Lepenist Allisio.
In Paris, Emmanuel Grégoire from the Parti Socialiste (PS) is over thirteen points ahead of the Republican Rachida Dati with 38.5 percent. Both sides are conducting waiver negotiations at the back. The question is whether the conservative Républicains will maintain the firewall against the right. Socialist leader Olivier Faure, for his part, rules out a nationwide agreement with LFI after Mélenchon attracted attention with anti-Semitic puns.
Many voices from the banlieue
Mélenchon’s “Indomitables” perform in several symbolically important cities with a high proportion of immigrants. In Saint-Denis, the largest satellite town of the Paris banlieue with 150,000 inhabitants, LFI candidate Bally Bagayoko was elected to the town hall in the first round of voting.
In Roubaix, an impoverished working-class town in the north of France that only shines thanks to the famous cycling classic, David Guiraud from LFI goes into the runoff election with a big lead.
The conclusion seems clear: Mélenchon and Le Pen are the winners of the first municipal election. They are entering the presidential election in spring 2027 with new dynamism.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon at a campaign event in Marseille at the beginning of March.Image: keystone
However, different laws apply there. Both Le Pen and Mélenchon still owe proof that they can win at least 50 percent of the vote nationwide. Their parties are only well anchored in certain places – the RN in the south of France, the LFI more and more in the suburbs. Counted across France, things look different. The RN performed very poorly on Sunday in cities like Paris, Strasbourg and Bordeaux. With such blank spots on the voter map, even “personally” oriented presidential elections can hardly be won.
The radicals are on the rise
That doesn’t change the fact that the radical forces are calling the shots in France today more than ever. They benefit from the fact that President Emmanuel Macron has systematically demolished and crushed his direct opponents, the moderate socialists and conservatives, for ten years.
With an unintended consequence: the populists around Le Pen and Mélenchon are currently clearly in control of the fragmented ruins of the French party landscape, even if the Socialists, Greens and Conservatives are slowly making up ground again.
The Macronists themselves are floored today: their center alliance suffered a collective rejection in most of France’s 35,000 municipalities on Sunday. Only in Le Havre does former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe maintain his electoral chances. And maybe only because he broke away from Macron. (aargauerzeitung.ch)