Refueling in Switzerland is likely to become more expensive.Image: KEYSTONE
interview
March 2, 2026, 11:30 a.mMarch 2, 2026, 11:30 a.m
An escalation in the Iran conflict is likely to affect Switzerland primarily through energy prices and the global economy. The appreciation of the franc will dampen inflation in the short term, but it will put a strain on the export economy and make monetary policy more difficult, said KOF Institute director Jan-Egbert Sturm in an interview.
The franc has appreciated significantly as a safe haven. What short-term consequences do you expect for inflation and the National Bank’s monetary policy?
Jan Egbert Sturm: We see opposite effects here. On the one hand, the escalation is likely to lead to higher energy prices, especially oil – which generally has the effect of increasing inflation. On the other hand, the franc has already appreciated significantly, and this is dampening imported inflation. Overall, this can even have a more deflationary effect. This is a challenge for the Swiss National Bank and at the same time puts a strain on the export-oriented economy.
How badly would persistently higher energy prices affect the Swiss economy?
When it comes primarily to energy prices, Switzerland is less affected than many other industrialized countries. Our industry is comparatively less energy-intensive and strongly focused on niche products. Energy-intensive sectors feel higher oil prices directly, but this channel is not the most important for Switzerland in terms of the economy as a whole. Households especially notice this when filling up with gas. This only has a delayed effect on electricity prices because many tariffs are fixed for one year.
KOF director Jan-Egbert Sturm.Image: KEYSTONE
What significance would a long-term disruption to shipping in the Persian Gulf or in the Strait of Hormuz have for Swiss foreign trade and supply chains?
First of all, this mainly affects the oil market. In addition, supply chains can be disrupted, as we have already seen after the pandemic. If transport through the region becomes more difficult, companies have to switch to more expensive or longer alternative routes, such as air freight or detours. This can lead to short-term shortages and price increases. However, such effects are usually temporary and balance out over longer periods of time.
“The most critical scenario would be a scenario with massive disruptions in the energy sector.”
The Swiss stock market reacted to the geopolitical shock. Which sectors would be winners and losers in a regionally limited escalation?
Basically, in such situations, sectors that are directly or indirectly linked to defense and the military benefit – as cynical as that is. The losers are primarily energy-intensive industries, whose costs rise due to higher energy prices. The markets usually price in such burdens early on, which puts the share prices of these companies under pressure.
Which escalation scenario in the Middle East would be the most economically critical from Switzerland’s perspective?
The most critical scenario would be a scenario with massive disruptions in the energy sector. This would not only have a direct effect on prices, but above all on the mood in the global economy. A renewed strong uncertainty could increase the risk of recession globally. The global economy has recently been in a phase of relative stabilization despite uncertainty – an escalation like the recent one could significantly cloud this mood again and thus also affect Switzerland. (awp/sda)
More about the war in the Middle East: