The debate over the Mercosur trade agreement has led to warnings of a flood of imports of cheap South American beef and poultry into the EU, to the detriment of Irish farmers.
The deal has been approved by European Union member states under a qualified majority vote but must still be approved by the European Parliament. But what exactly is in the deal in relation to beef and how can we assess its impact?
The current position
The four Mercosur countries involved in the proposed trade deal with the EU – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – already export beef to the EU market.
This came to just over 200,000 tonnes in 2024. These target two markets – the higher-value one for fresh and chilled cuts and the lower-value frozen beef market, mainly for further processing.
There are high tariffs on imports of beef into the EU from countries with which it does not have a trade deal – it varies from product to product but is often about 40 per cent or more.
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Some beef from the Mercosur countries enters under a variety of deals offering lower tariff levels on a certain amount of product – known as quotas – such as 20 per cent on a specified amount of prime beef cuts, many coming from Argentina. (Specific and detailed rules apply about the type of beef that can avail of these deals).
As well as the beef coming in under these quotas, some product – particularly in the higher-value fresh beef market – is sold subject to the higher tariff level applying when quotas run out. That this is possible is evidence of the lower price of production in some parts of South America and also of the recent rise in beef prices.
What is proposed now?
The Mercosur agreement proposes to increase the amount of South American beef entering the EU market at lower tariff levels.
Specifically, it proposes that 99,000 tonnes, a bit less than half of what currently comes from the Mercosur countries, can enter under lower tariff rates, generally 7.5 per cent. This allowance for extra imports at lower tariff rates will be phased in over a six-year period.
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The additional beef that can enter the EU at lower tariffs is split between an allowance for fresh and chilled beef and one for frozen beef. There are also some changes to the existing rules under which some beef enters at lower tariff rates. The additional allowance of 99,000 tonnes represents about 1.5 per cent of the EU beef market.
So extra South American beef will enter the EU market but the amounts involved will be limited. Following lobbying from countries such as Ireland and France, safeguards have been put in place, including the ability of the European Commission to suspend the favourable tariff rates for a period if there is evidence of a 5 per cent fall in the beef prices resulting from this.
There is disagreement about how effective this might be, but it is a legal instrument. There is also a promise for support to assist farmers if there is a major market disturbance, as well as the promise of earlier fund payments from the EU budget.
Farmers are correct when they say that standards must be maintained in beef being produced for the EU market – and that there have been issues here. The entry of a consignment of Brazilian beef with a banned hormone into the Irish market in December has been highlighted.
The EU does, however, have control over the standards implemented in the production of South American beef for the EU market and can suspend it at any time if it is not happy – and this will remain the case if Mercosur comes in.
What will the impact of the change be?
This is the contentious area. So far the case of the farm and meat industry lobby has dominated public debate, with charges that rural Ireland is being sold out in favour of big European industry, such as German car makers. But what do independent experts say?
Alan Matthews, professor emeritus of European agricultural policy at Trinity College Dublin, argues that the impact on farmers will, in fact, be limited.
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He points out the changes under the Mercosur regime do not mean that an extra 99,000 tonnes of South American product will enter the European market. This is a key point in the analysis of the likely market impact.
Much of the beef currently sold into the EU at high tariff levels from South American will instead be sold at the new, lower, 7.5 per cent rate.
While a lot of variables will come into the equation in terms of how much extra product might enter the EU, Matthews, in a recent blog post, estimates that it might be as low as 33.000 tonnes, on the basis of current market trends. And he said that it will mainly involve more imports of frozen beef for onward processing in making products such as Italian bresaola, rather than fresh and chilled product.
For the higher-value fresh and chilled product sold in retail settings and restaurants, what is likely is that beef now sold at high tariff levels will instead be imported under the new 7.5 per cent tariff.
The more expensive fresh beef cuts will, of course, then enter the market on better terms – and this will have some impact on competition. But the limits involved on the amount of lower quota imports do not suggest a big disruption in the EU beef market. The impact on farm incomes could be a loss of just 0.3 per cent, Matthews estimates, with a small fall in prices. Analysis by the European Commission came to similar conclusions.
An independent study by the Implement Consulting Group completed in 2021 for the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment agrees that the impact will be small.
With an analysis done in the somewhat different market conditions of five years ago, it put the likely extra imports into the EU market at about 50,000 tonnes, making the same point as Matthews that beef now sold in at higher tariff levels (out of quota product, in the jargon) will transfer to lower tariffs. This amounts to 0.7 per cent of EU beef production.
This was in line with an earlier estimate by Matthews, but he argues that market trends in the meantime suggest an even lower figure.
This will displace some Irish beef, the Implement report concluded, but “an upper-end estimate of the impact on production is a 0.08 per cent reduction in output” and a marginal €50 million fall in annual beef exports, which were then €2.3 billion. Even this, the report says, is an “upper-end estimate” of the likely damage.
Wider issues
Beef farming has been a difficult business in recent years, made possible by EU supports. The sector had a decent 2025, with a 40 per cent rise in beef prices, and fears that this might be reversed are understandable.
However, price trends are likely to be determined not by any South American impact but by the balance of international supply and demand, which is what has driven prices higher this year – shrinking cattle herds, strong demand and increased input costs have all contributed. Policymakers do face serious issues in looking at the future of farming in Ireland and the need to ensure a secure supply of safe food is increasingly important amid geopolitical tensions.
And were the UK, by far the biggest market for Irish beef, to do a deal to let in a lot of beef from South America or elsewhere, that might indeed be a threat for the Irish industry.
But the evidence suggests that Mercosur will not have a big impact on the EU beef market or on Irish beef farmers – despite the fact that claims that it will have completely dominated the Mercosur debate here.