Pro-regime demonstrators in Tehran with a portrait of the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Image: keystone
interview
The leadership in Tehran is now making tougher demands than before the war, says Iran expert Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik from the University of Bern in an interview. A new, uncertain phase in the conflict begins.
Apr 9, 2026, 8:05 p.mApr 9, 2026, 8:05 p.m
After the ceasefire, the Iranian regime celebrates itself as the victor of the war. Rightly so?
Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik: It survived the largest war to date against the USA and Israel and thus protected the country from collapse or total destabilization, which was one of the goals of this war. It is also enough to take a look at the ten demands of the regime with which it will now enter into negotiations with the USA on Saturday in Pakistan.
Which do you mean specifically?
Before the war, Tehran was willing to make many more concessions to avoid war. The regime emerged from the war stronger and the demands are now more far-reaching. For example, the lifting of export sanctions on Iranian oil.
What did Tehran gain?
At the expense of infrastructure and many lives, Iran has asserted itself as a regional power and can now control the Strait of Hormuz, which benefits it enormously in negotiations. Domestically, the regime has also managed to win back parts of the population in the name of Iranism, the strongest ideology in Iran. Wars often lead to national unity.
Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik, Iranian-Swiss political scientist at the University of Bern.Image: University of Bern
Trump still speaks of a successful “regime change”. Did it exist?
Nope. Iran has been effectively ruled by the Revolutionary Guard for decades – this is now becoming more obvious. It is no longer the mullahs alone who run the country, but rather military actors. This is also the reason why I avoid the term “mullah regime”. The system remains Islamist, but I suspect that there could be a certain degree of social opening in order to secure its existence in the long term.
Donald Trump wants to be the winner.Image: keystone
During the war, the regime executed an increasing number of people who took part in the protests in January. The death penalty is now to be expanded even further. Most of the atrocities are likely to take place in secret because of the internet blackout. This does not speak for a social opening.
Each of these executions must be condemned in the strongest possible terms. The regime’s violence during and after the protests has primarily to do with its fear. They are attempts to intimidate society. If you look at the long period of time, it becomes clear that the regime has always retreated a little further after each major protest. The “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests of 2022, for example, fought for a certain opening that has not been reversed to this day. With every move we achieved a lot, even if there were of course always setbacks. The fact that the last protest movement was crushed with a massacre with thousands of deaths was an escalation that was unique on this scale.
Trump has inflicted immense material and personnel damage on the Islamist system. Will the government in Tehran now try to cooperate with the USA on the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, or do you expect the opposite?
All parties are, at least for now, clear that the conflict must be resolved through negotiations.
Why has it not been possible to depose the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard despite the enormous superiority of the USA?
Above all, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with which Iran was able to put pressure on the global economy, as well as asymmetrical, modern warfare played a major role. Today, drones that cost less than $30,000 can destroy radar systems worth billions. Had there been further escalation and further attacks on Iran’s infrastructure, Iran might have attacked oil refineries in the Gulf states, which could have led to a global energy crisis.
So what does this ceasefire mean for the people of Iran?
People are not doing well economically; many jobs have been lost because of the internet failure. In the meantime, more people can access the Internet again, and it seems to me that the ban is currently being relaxed.
What consequences does the war have for the democracy movement?
The war definitely damaged the democracy movement in Iran. However, if the regime succeeds in easing the sanctions and, in particular, exporting oil again without restrictions, the economic situation could improve. This could in turn strengthen those social classes that are committed to democracy.
What do you expect from the announced negotiations with US Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan?
The parties’ demands are far apart, but I am cautiously optimistic. However, the negotiations will take a lot of time. At the same time, there is a possibility that the US and Israel will attack Iran for the third time during the negotiations. However, I consider this probability to be low, as this would mean a new level of escalation – and the US is aware of this. The Republicans don’t want to lose the elections in November either.
Given the current status, what would be a realistic outcome?
I have the impression that both parties are actually interested in a compromise. Also because the regime cannot sustain such a war in the long term.
How great is the risk that fighting will flare up again?
Much depends on whether the regime in Iran rethinks its foreign policy. So far this has done more harm than good to everyone in the region. (aargauerzeitung.ch)