The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime routes in the world.Image: keystone
Mar 2, 2026, 6:54 p.mMar 2, 2026, 6:54 p.m
There is war in the Persian Gulf: Israel and the USA attacked Iran and in an unprecedented decapitation strike the ruler of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khameneias well as numerous other high officials of the mullahs’ regime killed. The Iranian armed forces have launched missile and drone attacks on Israel and the Arab states allied with the USA Reacts.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards also announced on Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to international shipping until further notice due to Israeli-American attacks on Iranian territory. A few days before the start of hostilities, naval units of the Revolutionary Guards were still blockading this strategically and globally important sea route rehearsed in maneuvers.
Iranian naval exercises in the strait in February 2026. Image: keystone
According to the Iranian news agency Tasnim, ships received repeated radio messages on Saturday telling them passage is prohibited became. The crews were therefore asked to stop the machines and prepare for possible boarding. US authorities also called on merchant ships to avoid the Gulf due to intense military activity.
Late Saturday evening, there were only a few tankers left crossing this maritime bottleneck, which is normally used by hundreds of ships every day. The reason for this was also that the insurance companies significantly increased their premiums for the shipping companies or even canceled them completely Financial Times reported. Complete However, shipping traffic did not come to a standstill.
Strait of Hormuz traffic drops sharply amid regional escalation
Vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted materially following recent US strikes on Iran and the subsequent regional escalation. According to real-time traffic analysis, transits through the chokepoint… pic.twitter.com/COoh0W9jfk
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) March 2, 2026
Already last summer, during the twelve-day Israeli-Iranian war Charter prices for oil tankers increased significantly in the Strait of Hormuz. At that time, however, there were no significant Iranian actions against shipping traffic in the waterway.
This article was originally published on February 21st. This is a heavily revised and updated version.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important, can Tehran really block it and what consequences would a longer-term blockage have?
Where is the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is a major waterway between Iran in the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates in the south, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. Image: Watson
The narrowest point between the islands of Larak (Iran) and Quoin (Oman) is only about 38 kilometers. Two shipping lanes, each just under four kilometers wide, lead through the narrowest part of the strait.
Why is it so important?
The Strait of Hormuz is the only maritime access to the Persian Gulf – all shipping traffic to and from the oil ports of Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates passes through this bottleneck. Saudi Arabia’s most important oil ports are also located in the Gulf; the kingdom only has a few alternative ports on the Red Sea. All of them, including Iran, export the majority of their crude oil across the strait – primarily to Asia.
Last year, according to data from the market research company Plumber An average of around 13 million barrels (1 barrel = 159 liters) of crude oil is transported through this main artery of the world’s oil supply every day – that corresponds to about 31 percent of global sea transport of crude oil.
In 2023 the volume was even higher, with the chart below including other petroleum liquids in addition to crude oil. Only in the Strait of Malacca was the volume higher:
Around a fifth of global liquefied gas trade is also carried out via this route – Qatar, for example, exports almost all of its liquefied gas via this route. In the opposite direction, food is imported by road to supply the Gulf states. It is therefore of enormous strategic importance.
Can Iran even close the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is so narrow – in the actual shipping channels – that it can easily be mined. Clearing out a mine would be time-consuming and time-consuming. Even a partial interruption would have global effects. Iran has one sufficiently large arsenal of sea minesto get off the road, at least in the short term to make it impassable. There are also small submarines and speedboats, as well anti-ship missiles stationed near the coast and drones that could threaten tankers.
However, the Western fleets, especially the US Navy, and to some extent the naval forces of the Arab Gulf states have mine clearance capabilities. Iranian surface units are likely to be eliminated in short order given the overwhelming superiority of American naval and air forces. US President Donald Trump has already spoken of the sinking of nine Iranian ships.
Image: TruthSocial
If Iran actually tries to block the road in the long term, massive Western attacks on Iranian naval facilities, minelayers and missile sites would be expected. Iran’s Konarak naval base has already been bombed.
Vantor imagery shows airstrike related damage at Konarak Naval Base, Iran, where at least three surface ships have sunk & numerous buildings are damaged or destroyed pic.twitter.com/rygU2pFjdd
— Damien Symon (@detresfa_) March 2, 2026
What consequences would a blockage have?
The price of North Sea Brent oil, which was around $72 a barrel before the fighting began, briefly rose to $82 in early Asian trading on March 2 and then settled at $78. Which scenario is still to be expected is largely unclear – it could remain a limited shock with oil prices around $80 or develop into a sustained disruption that pushes oil prices to $100. If the blockade continues, one would have to assume that oil prices will reach $110 to $120 per barrel.
Higher oil prices primarily affect the transport sector, with companies sooner or later passing on the additional costs to the products. The resulting increase in inflation is therefore not only noticeable when filling up, but also when shopping in the supermarket.
The wholesale price for natural gas also rose sharply on Monday. The price for the trend-setting futures contract TTF for delivery in one month on the Amsterdam stock exchange jumped to 36.2 francs per megawatt hour – around 25 percent more than on Friday. It is the strongest price jump since August 2023. However, it will usually take a while before the increase is noticeable among private customers, as energy suppliers are tied to long-term contracts. However, if shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a month, the European gas price could more than double, according to Goldman Sachs.
According to experts, only a longer-term failure of the oil-exporting countries in the Gulf – if the war lasts longer and escalates further – could happen trigger an international economic crisis. However, this is not a compelling scenario as other countries such as Canada, the USA or Norway could increase their oil production volumes. On Sunday, OPEC+ decided to aim for an increase in oil production by 206,000 barrels per day. However, Russia, which is a member of the group, would also benefit from this.
It’s not just oil that’s transported here: container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Image: keystone
However, the oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf, particularly Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, who do not have viable alternative routes, would certainly be hit hard. Iran itself, which ships around one and a half million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz every day and absolutely needs the income from these exports, would also be affected. However, the major energy importers in Asia, primarily China, India, Japan and South Korea, would also be affected. Significantly more than four-fifths of the oil and liquefied natural gas shipped through the Strait of Hormuz went there in 2024.
A longer-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would therefore severely strain the mullahs’ regime’s relations with China, which is Iran’s only oil buyer.
Are there alternative routes?
The Arab Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been looking for alternative routes to avoid the Strait of Hormuz in recent years. Saudi Arabia operates the East-West crude oil pipeline, which has a capacity of 5 million barrels per day. The Emirates has a pipeline connecting its oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal on the Gulf of Oman.
However, the capacities of these alternative routes are still significantly limited: according to American estimates Energy Information Administration (EIA) In the event of a disruption to the sea route, around 2.6 million barrels of crude oil per day could be available to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Were there already blockages on the road?
The threat of blocking shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a means of exerting pressure in Iranian foreign policy. Already during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s (the First Gulf War), the Islamic Republic threatened to close the important sea route – even if this would have affected its own exports. In the so-called tanker war, both sides tried to disrupt the enemy’s exports by attacking tankers and merchant ships. The US registered Kuwaiti oil tankers under its flag during the war. They also protected energy transports through naval escorts in the Gulf.
Damage to a Saudi tanker after an Iraqi airstrike, 1984. Image: AP NY
Tehran also used the blockade threat as a means of pressure during the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program in 2011, and again the following year in response to American and European sanctions. In May 2019, four ships, including two Saudi tankers, were attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates – but outside the Strait of Hormuz. Britain, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain then joined a US-led maritime security coalition to protect shipping lanes.
In 2023 and 2024, Iran seized a total of three ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz. It was a retaliatory action for the US seizure of Iranian-related tankers.