In the activist’s view, a Tisza victory would reflect a broad anti-Orbán coalition rather than affection for Magyar — similar to Labour’s 2024 victory in Britain, which was less about public enthusiasm for Keir Starmer than a desire to end Conservative rule. And so maybe voters wouldn’t care what baggage Magyar brought with him.
Will Vladimir Putin save Orbán?
It isn’t just a sex tape people are bracing for. With nominations now closed, András Rácz, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, is watching for Russian influence operations to ramp up.
So far, that front has been relatively quiet. But Rácz thinks that will change. Speaking at a panel discussion in Budapest this week, he predicted a significant increase in Russian disinformation efforts aimed at helping the Hungarian prime minister.
“Orbán’s government has been the best asset Russia has ever had in the EU and NATO,” he said. “It would be foolish for them not to do everything they can to keep Orbán in power.”
Szabolcs Panyi — an award-winning journalist for Direkt36, an independent, non-profit investigative outlet — similarly expects intensified activity in the final weeks of the race. Citing multiple European national security sources, he has reported that a team of Kremlin-linked “political technologists” has been tasked with influencing Hungary’s election. The effort, he says, will be overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
How successful such an effort will be remains unclear. In September, Russia launched an influence campaign against Moldova’s ruling party, co-founded by President Maia Sandu, in an attempt to swing a parliamentary election toward a pro-Russian party. In the end, it failed: Moldova’s pro-Western governing party retained its majority, decisively defeating the pro-Russian opposition.
There is, however, a key difference between Moldova and Hungary. Moldovan authorities mounted a large-scale effort to counter the Russian campaign. Hungary’s ruling party is unlikely to do the same.