After 90 minutes, with Zelenskyy digging in and the Hungarian not budging, the leaders decided to shut down the debate, issuing a statement that “the European Council will revert to this issue at its next meeting.”
The bet is that one way or another, things will be different after Hungarians go to the polls on April 12. If Orbán loses, then his successor could be motivated to lift Budapest’s obstruction in exchange for the EU releasing cash.
“France and Germany were not willing to spend too much time” or “political capital” to persuade Orbán at Thursday’s summit, and had “no willingness … to help his electoral campaign,” the national official said.
If Orbán is reelected — which one EU official said many of the leaders in the summit room on Thursday believe is likely — then he may be more willing to approve the loan, once oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline again.
But if he doesn’t, several punishments will be on the table at a leaders’ gathering in Cyprus on April 23-24, including freezing more funding, suing Hungary in the EU’s top court, issuing fines, and even the so-called nuclear option, Article 7, which strips countries of their EU voting rights.
Awkward silences
The atmosphere during Thursday’s discussion was “icy” at points, with “awkward silences,” Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said.