Image: watson/getty/imago/keystone
analysis
The worst energy crisis in living memory is looming.
Mar 23, 2026, 4:22 p.mMar 23, 2026, 4:22 p.m
David Rothkopf was a national security adviser in Bill Clinton’s administration. Later he was editor-in-chief of the magazine “Foreign Policy”. The man therefore knows all about geopolitics. What he explained on the podcast of the online portal “Daily Beast” at the weekend is all the more worrying. Rothkopf specifically stated:
«Global events are currently being driven by the psychosis of a single individual. Everyone in Washington knows this. All the fuses that could have prevented this have blown. We are therefore in a situation in which a decaying, elderly, ignorant, paranoid, vain and confused Commander in Chief is making gut decisions.”
It is well known that Donald Trump has the attention span of a 5-year-old and that he would have no chance of passing the marshmallow test – the test in which a child is given two pieces of the coveted candy if he can restrain himself from immediately devouring the first one. But now the US president’s lack of control, coupled with limitless narcissism and possibly worsening dementia, is leading the world dangerously close to an abyss with unforeseeable consequences.
It is becoming apparent that Trump’s hasty actions in Iran, which were not coordinated with his allies, are not only making the Strait of Hormuz impassable, but are also throwing global supply chains out of balance. In his article on Substack, the renowned economist Paul Krugman speaks of a dangerous connection between hyperglobalization and chaos and states:
«The world has become extremely dependent on complex global supply chains and the former leader of the free world has become unpredictable. Can anyone predict what their Iran policy will be in a week?”
The focus is currently on the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of global oil production flows. It is very narrow and the bank on the Iran side is steep and rocky. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to prevent the Iranians from targeting tankers. The Iranians are currently only allowing select tankers through the strait. There is therefore a huge tanker traffic jam in the Persian Gulf – and according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rest of the world is experiencing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
Burning tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.Image: keystone
Anyone who thinks that the Americans will be able to bomb this problem away in a few days or weeks is wrong. The Strait of Hormuz can only be wrested from the Iranians’ hands with great effort, if at all. According to information from senior American military officials in the Financial Times, a single tanker caravan requires the escort of eight or even twelve destroyers and the use of F-15 and F-18 fighter jets. There are currently 14 American destroyers in the surrounding waters.
Such an escort would also have to be secured by “boots on the ground”. That’s why 2,200 Marines are currently on their way to the region on the USS Tripoli. However, these soldiers were stationed in Japan. They won’t arrive until the end of next week at the earliest.
They cannot count on the support of other NATO soldiers. Because Trump did not inform his allies and insulted them badly over the Greenland issue, they are now rejecting him. The US President’s reaction is childish defiance: “We don’t need them, WE NEVER NEEDED THEM,” he posts on his Truth Social platform.
Even if we succeed in making the Strait of Hormuz passable again, the damage has already been done. Iran expert Nate Swanson – who was part of Trump’s negotiating team in 2025 – explains in “Foreign Affairs”:
“Iran itself does not need any significant military success. “The regime just needs to do enough damage to make regional partners, markets and the American public nervous.”
Those in power in Tehran have already achieved this goal. Even in the best possible scenario, high prices for oil and natural gas will continue for a long time. The Economist gives three reasons for this:
- The Gulf states have already reduced their production by a total of 10 million barrels per day. This corresponds to around 10 percent of global production. It will take time to ramp up production again, and in the case of liquid gas, a very long time. Qatar reports that repairing its destroyed facilities could take up to 5 years.
- Even if the strait becomes passable again, many tanker captains will be reluctant to pass through it. Firstly, because the risk of shelling remains high, and secondly, because insurance premiums have exploded.
- Ultimately, due to the general chaos, many tankers are in the wrong place in the world.
The Economist summarizes all of this as follows:
“Even if Donald Trump and the Iranians reach a deal that ends the fighting tomorrow, it will still take four months for the markets to reach a state that resembles normalcy.”
David Rothkopf hits the nail on the head with his analysis. With his careless actions, the pathological narcissist Trump has caused damage not only to the USA, but also to the global economy, the extent of which cannot yet be estimated. Iran specialist Swanson also comes to a depressing conclusion:
“Iran’s strategy now is to increase the costs for the US and the Gulf states so that Trump decides on a ceasefire and limits future Israeli actions. Ultimately, Iran wants to force him to choose between Israel’s security interests and the stability of global markets. That’s why the war that Trump started will not end well. And every day it continues prolongs the suffering of the people of Iran. This is a tragedy that only Khamenei and Trump could have accomplished together.”