Marseille, France’s second city, is. And the incumbent center-left candidate there faces a serious challenge from the National Rally.
Other southern cities such as Nice, Toulon and Nîmes are also far-right targets, so keep an eye on those to get a sense of whether voters are ready to hand Le Pen or Jordan Bardella the keys to the Elysée next year.
MARSEILLE LOCAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
Le Havre should be on your watch list too, because it’s former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe’s home base. Philippe is the mayor and is running for reelection before he sets his sights on the presidency in 2027. He’s seen as one of the strongest candidates to take on the far right, but polling suggests he faces a make-or-break battle to hold on to Le Havre.
On the left, the Greens risk losing several of the big cities they picked up six years ago, such as Bordeaux or Lyon, which could further weaken the party after a string of underwhelming results. The Socialists are hoping to hold on to Lille and Nantes in addition to Paris as they pursue a comeback following their worst-ever result in the 2022 presidential race.
And keep your eyes on Roubaix on the outskirts of Lille and the Parisian suburbs of Saint-Denis and Saint-Ouen-sur-Seine. The hard-left France Unbowed was expected to do well in those three areas, but the party’s response to the death of a far-right activist last month may threaten its electoral prospects. Wins, however, could suggest that France Unbowed’s effort to court educated, environmentally minded young voters and working-class urban populations, often of immigrant descent, is paying off.
How it will play out?
Reporting and campaigning restrictions for municipal elections, which take place every six years, kick in first thing Saturday, so you won’t be hearing from candidates most of the weekend. The media is also barred from reporting on polls or stories related to a specific race until after the vote Sunday.