“EU membership has always offered stability and prosperity for European nations,” European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told POLITICO. “Now we see that those outside of the EU are increasingly aware that, in a world of competing influences, a seat at the table in the EU also offers increased security and protection.”
Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a major contributor to the shift. But the biggest catalyst is how Donald Trump has acted since his return to the White House in 2025, according to four diplomats, three EU and two national officials familiar with the deliberations in accession candidate countries, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.
Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on imports, his administration’s National Security Strategy that blamed the EU for hastening “civilizational erasure,” and his threat to seize Greenland — a territory of Denmark and a NATO ally — have all pushed countries toward Brussels, the diplomats said.
Iceland looks as if it’ll be first out of the blocks, with Reykjavík having sped up its timetable for a referendum on whether to resume negotiations to join the EU. “Part of the picture is the geopolitical turbulence,” Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO.
“We would be stronger in a bigger group with like-minded countries that speak out for democracy, freedom, human rights, territorial integrity. Not to mention nations’ rights to self-determination,” Þorgerður said. The attraction of joining the EU “is defense and security, definitely, but it’s also our economic security.”
Rich-poor divide
For current EU members, allowing wealthier countries into the club is much more attractive than accepting another batch of poorer ones from the east.