Donald Trump likes to be the peacemaker, here at the beginning of December between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.Image: keystone
analysis
Theaters of war and sources of conflict kept the world in suspense in 2025. What will happen next in the new year? Are there chances for peace? We take a look into the crystal ball.
Jan 3, 2026, 7:46 p.mJan 3, 2026, 7:46 p.m
Donald Trump would like to be a great peacemaker. In fact, since he took office again last January, he has used military force more often than in his entire first term in office. And the peace agreements that he orchestrated with pomp were often for the gallery. None of these conflicts could really be resolved.
Overall, it was a pretty gloomy year. The long-feared war broke out between Israel and Iran, even if it was short at twelve days. In the Ukraine war, which is taking place more or less on our doorstep, the weapons continue to speak. And China is increasingly threatening the island of Taiwan with violent “reunification”.
Will everything be better at least in 2026? There is no reason for excessive optimism. Here is an overview of the most important conflicts and how things could continue:
Ukraine
Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk region: The war will soon enter its fifth year.Image: keystone
When Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, he believed in a quick victory. The war will soon enter its fifth year. Russia appears to have a military advantage, but a decisive breakthrough is not in sight. Donald Trump wants to end the war. The problem is that he too often sides with the aggressor.
This became apparent shortly before the end of the year in the alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence near Novgorod. Although the evidence is dubious, Trump allowed himself to be lathered once again. In fact, the Russian ruler probably wants to torpedo the rapprochement between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky and sabotage the peace process.
Putin sees himself at an advantage. His willingness to compromise is only feigned. In reality, he is probably hoping that Trump will withdraw in exasperation and shift the problem onto the Europeans. It’s a risky bet. But if that happens, and that is not unthinkable, the war will probably see the beginning of the sixth year.
Middle East
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains precarious.Image: keystone
The ceasefire in the Gaza war and the release of the last Israeli hostages are the greatest and only countable success of Trump’s peace efforts to date. But the continuation is proving difficult and the suffering of the civilian population continues. Israel’s ultra-right government would probably like to restart the war against Hamas.
It’s a balancing act for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because he can’t antagonize Donald Trump and the USA. There is persecution in the White House his activities, according to Axios, with suspicion. This is shown by the dispute over the West Bank, which Netanyahu’s right-wing extremist coalition partners want to further colonize and annex.
A new Gaza war is unlikely, but implementing the peace plan remains challenging. However, a renewed escalation with Iran and its “offshoot”, Hezbollah in Lebanon, is possible. The regime in Tehran is ailing, but whether the unrest at the turn of the year can bring about his downfall remains questionable.
Tentative optimism is permitted in the case of Syria. It is true that outbreaks of violence do occur again and again the relationship between the ethnic groups remains fragile. But contrary to some fears, a new civil war has so far not occurred. Overall, however, the region will remain a powder keg in 2026, as was recently shown in Yemen.
Venezuela
Nicolás Maduro and his wife were arrested by US troops on Saturday night.Image: keystone
Donald Trump seems to be going back to the days when the USA viewed Latin America as its “backyard” where it could do as it pleased. Apart from Venezuela and the autocratic ruler Nicolás Maduro. Under the pretext of drug trafficking, the US President is seeking to remove him from power.
Things escalated on Saturday night, with US airstrikes on the capital Caracas and the arrest of Maduro. Donald Trump is taking a risk with his aggressive actions. Large parts of his MAGA base are isolationist and have had enough of US interference around the world.
Taiwan
China’s ruler Xi Jinping is striving the “reunification” with the islandif necessary by force. He underlined this with the maneuver at the end of the year effectively corresponded to a naval blockade of Taiwan. With every military exercise, China seems to want to tighten the noose around the liberal democratic thorn in its side.
Some observers believe an invasion is inevitable, perhaps not next year but in 2027, when the People’s Liberation Army celebrates its 100th birthday. The 21st Party Congress of the Communist Party will also take place. By then, China wants to be ready for a military attack on Taiwan. These are uncomfortable perspectives.
Various
Hundreds of thousands have fled the fighting in Sudan.Image: keystone
There are currently armed conflicts in many regions, but especially in Africa. In Sudan, the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are engaged in a brutal civil war with massacres on both sides. And there is no end in sight. Fighting is also ongoing in eastern Congo despite an agreement signed in the presence of Trump.
The Kashmir conflict between the “enemy brothers” India and Pakistan is back in 2025 escalated into a short war. Another border dispute that has been simmering for decades is between Thailand and Cambodia also degenerated into violence. In both cases there was a ceasefire, but the conflicts were not really resolved.