Iran has significant amounts of uranium enriched to 60 percent. So he’s not far from the bomb. Image: www.imago-images.de
The World Health Organization (WHO) is preparing for the worst-case scenario of a nuclear disaster if the Iran war escalates further. How great is the danger that a cornered mullah regime will build the bomb?
Mar 20, 2026, 7:52 p.mMar 20, 2026, 7:52 p.m
There has been war in the Gulf for almost three weeks now: the USA and Israel have attacked Iran and killed numerous leaders of the mullahs’ regime, including the supreme spiritual leader Ali Khamenei. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, among others, gave reasons for the attack the alleged threat from Iran’s nuclear program to.
The military exchange, in which Iran also attacks the Arab Gulf states with missiles and drones while Israel takes action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, has sparked fears of further escalation. Hanan Balkhy, the World Health Organization’s regional director for the Eastern Mediterranean, said: in an interview with Politico magazine: “The worst scenario is a nuclear incident, and that is what worries us most.” WHO staff are prepared for such an event, including an attack on a nuclear facility or the use of a nuclear weapon. “We’re thinking about it and just hoping it doesn’t come to that,” she said.
Balkhy’s fears are not unfounded: According to information from Tehran, this week there was an attack a floor on the site of the Bushehr nuclear power plant a. The nuclear power plant itself was not damaged. Regarding the possible use of a nuclear weapon, David Sacks, unofficial AI advisor to US President Donald Trump, said: his fearIsrael might consider something like this. Trump was immediately forced to deny it said to reporters: “Israel wouldn’t do something like that.”
Israel, which is an unofficial nuclear power, would probably only use the nuclear option if there was an existential threat. But does this also apply to the mullahs in Tehran? This regime that has been propagating the destruction of the Jewish state for decades and has been cold-blooded until recently killed tens of thousands of its own protesting residents has all sorts of things to trust. However, Iran does not have nuclear weapons – not yet, at least according to current knowledge. How close is the country to the bomb?
From the nuclear agreement to uranium enrichment
The UN nuclear regulator IAEA assumes that Iran has a coordinated, secret Nuclear weapons program which he gave up in 2003. However, Tehran denies it has ever operated or planned such a program. Nuclear technology is only developed and used for civil purposes. The supreme spiritual leader and true ruler Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa (a religious decree), first mentioned in 2003, banning the development and use of nuclear weapons under Islamic law.
Khamenei, pictured here in 2015, issued a fatwa banning the development and use of nuclear weapons. Image: AP/Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader
In return for the lifting of international sanctions, Iran voted in 2015 as part of the nuclear deal with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany and the European Union to restrict its nuclear activities to exclusively civilian purposes. However, this agreement collapsed in 2018 with the unilateral termination of the agreement by the USA during Donald Trump’s first term. A year later, Iran gradually began to violate the agreed restrictions, particularly on uranium enrichment and the use of additional centrifuges. This led to massive tensions with the European states that wanted to continue to adhere to the agreement.
A student looks at centrifuges built by Iran at an exhibition in Tehran. Image: keystone
2025, immediately before the Israeli-American attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities in the so-called Twelve Day Warsaid the IAEA serious concerns because of the enrichment of uranium to 60 percent (see info box) and the lack of Iranian cooperation, which made it difficult to check Iranian activities. On June 12 – the day before the Israeli attack – Iran announced an expansion of its nuclear program, a significant increase in its uranium production and the construction of a third enrichment facility. IAEA inspectors had previously discovered traces of uranium at previously unknown locations. Iran had not declared the sites as nuclear facilities.
Uranium enrichment
Setback for the nuclear program – increased nuclear ambitions
The American-Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 probably caused them severe damage. The enrichment facilities were destroyed or severely damaged. Iran the IAEA did not allowto inspect the bombed facilities; their exact condition is therefore unclear. From publicly available information and analysis however, it emergesthat Iran is unlikely to have made significant progress in rebuilding its key nuclear facilities.
The satellite image shows craters at the Fordo nuclear facility after the American attacks in June 2025. Image: keystone
According to a report by the IAEA As of September 2025, Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent – a supply that is incompatible with purely civilian use and with further enrichment to 90 percent for ten nuclear warheads would be enough. However, the IAEA has not been able to verify how much of this uranium stock remains. Iran has not explained what happened to the material, and its condition is also unclear.
The war may have shown the Iranian leadership that its military defense systems were largely ineffective. According to one Analysis by the Italian think tank ISPI Tehran concluded that nuclear weapons were the only real deterrent against Israel and the United States. The think tank also pointed to rumors that Iran was enriching uranium at top-secret sites that were never reported to the IAEA.
Last year’s attack and the current military strikes by Israel and the USA have probably significantly reduced the risk of an Iranian bomb in the short term – but the program still exists. Like the Center for Strategic and International Studies recently commented: “Iran still has 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, and the exact location of this nuclear material remains unknown.” In addition, preventive military measures can physically delay a nuclear program like Iran’s, but at the same time tend to strengthen the regime’s nuclear ambitions.
Possible act of desperation
The Israeli-American military strikes have decimated the leadership of the mullahs’ regime; It is currently not clear whether Khatami’s successor – his son Mojtaba – is actually in charge and how much he is under the influence of the Revolutionary Guards. This uncertainty also reinforces the assessment of the Iranian leadership’s possible actions. It is conceivable that, in view of the impending loss of power, it could try to quickly build and test a nuclear warhead from the remaining material.
The database Global Trade Alert (GTA) appreciates that probability one such nuclear scenarios due to structural risk factors – with the warning that probability estimates for nuclear consequences are “inherently unreliable” and “should not be used for operational planning”.
Breakout time and ready-to-use nuclear weapons
The term “breakout time” refers to how long it would take to produce enough weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. This does not mean the time it would take to produce a nuclear warhead and make it operational. The distinction is important because the breakout time is shorter than the time until the atomic bomb is ready for use.
During the validity of the 2015 nuclear deal, the breakout time was at least one year. Since Iran now has significant quantities of 60 percent uranium and enriching it to 90 percent takes much less time than previous enrichment phases, the breakout time has been shortened to around a week. According to one Assessment by the American Defense Intelligence Agency From May 2025, Iran would probably need “less than a week” to do this. Whether this is still the case now – after the destruction caused by repeated military strikes – is of course doubtful.
Centrifuges at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Image: AP Atomic Energy Organization of
However, as mentioned, the steps to a ready-to-use nuclear weapon would take longer than producing enough weapons-grade uranium. US intelligence also estimated this period during the nuclear deal period to around a yearprovided that the production of fissile material and further development into a weapon could take place in parallel. It is difficult to say what this schedule would currently look like. It also depends on whether Iran would receive external aid, such as from North Korea.
The US Congress Based on public reports from the IAEA, it is assumed that Iran does not yet have a functional weapon design, i.e. a warhead that is small enough to be carried by a missile. Likewise, there is no suitable explosive system that compresses the subcritical uranium portions reliably and quickly enough and thereby creates a critical mass, leading to a nuclear chain reaction and an explosion.
Dirty bomb
Even if the regime in Tehran cannot produce an operational nuclear warhead, it could choose a nuclear option: the use of a so-called dirty bomb. This is a conventional explosive device to which radioactive material is added, which is then distributed through the explosion into the surrounding area. There is no nuclear chain reaction with the known devastating consequences. The radiological dangers of such a bomb are usually overestimated – their main effect would be primarily psychological.
Iran undoubtedly has the means to make a dirty bomb. However, experts agree that the use of such a weapon, for example in Israel, would represent an enormous risk for Tehran itself – and so to speak strategic suicide would equal. Even if a bomb were used by the allied Hezbollah, for example, the risk of detection and retaliation would be very high.
Trump: Iran war will soon be over
Video: watson/Elena Maria Müller