Opposition leaders echo that critique. Giuseppe Conte, leader of the populist 5Star Movement, said the reform did little to address chronic delays in the justice system and instead formed part of a broader institutional power grab.
“The real goal is to divide and rule,” Conte told POLITICO, accusing the government of seeking a justice system “that no longer disturbs those in command.”
Invincible or vulnerable?
The risk for Meloni is not legal or procedural, but political. Justice reform pits Meloni against a vocal and well-organized constituency with deep roots in the state. Similar proposals floated during Berlusconi’s first government in the mid-1990s triggered protests and contributed to the collapse of his coalition. Successors drew a lesson: avoid the fight.
Meloni’s decision, unforced by Brussels, market pressure or crisis, can be partly explained by her personal trajectory. She entered politics during the upheaval of the 1990s, and carries no personal baggage from that era. She is operating from a position of strength, leading a stable government and canvassing well.
Polls suggest the gamble is finely balanced. Recent surveys show opponents of the reform slightly ahead, though awareness of details remains low. A recent poll by YouTrend forecast a win for opponents of the reform if turnout is low, with 51 percent voting against, whereas with higher turnout, the supporters of the reform would win, by a margin of 52.6 percent to 47.4 percent. A poll by SWG found 38 percent of the electorate supported the reform versus 37 percent against, with 25 percent undecided.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, of the YouTrend polling agency, described the vote as an “unprecedented challenge” for Meloni. Mobilizing opposition, he noted, was often easier than building support for a complex reform, and center-left voters have historically been more reliable in turning out for referendums.