A southern Lebanese village after an Israeli airstrike.Image: keystone
analysis
The former crown jewel of Iran’s proxy militias dutifully fired rockets into Israel following the Israeli-American attack on the mullahs’ regime. And this resulted in an Israeli ground offensive.
March 6, 2026, 6:57 p.mMarch 6, 2026, 6:57 p.m
Hezbollah boss Naim Kassim is expected to… Killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were faced with a difficult decision: Should the Shiite terrorist militia financed by Tehran intervene in the war on Iran’s side – and thereby possibly seal its end? Or should it stay out of the war – and thereby risk the end of financial aid from Iran?
Kassim decided on war – since Monday night Hezbollah attacks towns and cities in the Israeli border area with missiles and drones. Israel immediately retaliated and carried out airstrikes on the Shiite organization’s strongholds in southern Lebanon and south of the capital Beirut. In addition, Israeli ground troops also advanced into Lebanon. The Israeli army called on the population of almost all suburbs in Beirut to flee.
Israeli air strike on the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh in southern Beirut.Image: keystone
Destruction of Israel as a declared goal
Hezbollah’s decision to enter the war, the Israeli journalist Amit Segal described it as “Israeli-sponsored suicide”.is in line with the basic principles of the terrorist militia, which was set up in the 1980s with the help of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. She swore allegiance to the leader of the Iranian Revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini, and vowed to fight against the Israeli occupation of Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. As with their Iranian backers, their stated goal was – and still is – the destruction of Israel.
For decades, Hezbollah was the most powerful terrorist militia in the Middle East, the crown jewel in Iran’s so-called proxy network Axis of resistancethrough which Tehran indirectly developed its power in the region. At the same time, the organization, as the representative and protective force of the Shiites in Lebanon, dominated its internal politics at will. It formed a state within a state, and its militia was clearly superior to the weak Lebanese army.
Massive weakening after October 7th
But this changed as an indirect consequence of October 7, 2023, when Hamas – also supported by the mullahs in Tehran – carried out its massacre in Israel. The next day, Hezbollah began shelling northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas, but without fully deploying its enormous arsenal of rockets. These pinpricks, which forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of Israeli residents in the border area, lasted until September 2024.
Then Israel retaliated massively, first with an unprecedented intelligence operation in which several thousand pagers and other devices belonging to Hezbollah members exploded. This was followed by devastating air strikes that killed almost the entire Hezbollah leadership, including its long-time boss Hassan Nasrallah. In November 2024, the weakened Hezbollah was forced to agree to a ceasefire that required it to withdraw from the southern border area beyond the Litani River. She should also be disarmed.
Israeli tanks on the border with Lebanon in March 2026.Image: keystone
Weak Lebanese government
However, disarmament made little progress – Israel claimed that Hezbollah was rearming faster than it was being disarmed. Israeli troops also held continues to occupy positions in the Lebanese border area and also regularly violated the ceasefire through military interventions. In September 2025, the Lebanese government finally adopted a multi-stage plan to dismantle Hezbollah’s arsenal and reported in January 2026, the first phase has been completed. Israel immediately doubted this.
After Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel, the Lebanese government on Monday issued an “immediate ban” on all military activities by the terrorist militia and called on them to hand over their weapons. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam emphasized that the decision on war and peace rested exclusively with the state. After the Israeli retaliatory attacks the government called an emergency meetingwhich was also attended by the army chief. Security forces are said to have already arrested suspected Hezbollah fighters and confiscated their weapons. However, it is still very questionable whether the Lebanese state is strong enough to stand up to Hezbollah.
Rhetorical distance from Tehran
Kassim promptly accused the government of betraying Hezbollah and warned the militia’s opponents in Lebanon not to stab it in the back. Addressing Israel, he said: “Our decision is confrontation and resistance to the utmost limits.” Israel is an “existential threat” to Hezbollah, Lebanon and the entire region. “What Israel did was not a response to rocket fire, but rather a premeditated act of aggression,” he also said.
Hezbollah leader Kassim next to a portrait of his predecessor Nasrallah. archive image: keystone
Nevertheless, Hezbollah currently only seems like a shadow of its former self. And it is increasingly trying to redefine its role, writes Sabine Brandes in the Jewish general. In this way, she distances herself “at least rhetorically from her most important donor”. Hezbollah boss Kassim presented the rocket attacks on Israel as a reaction to alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire. And he stressed that the attacks were “unrelated to any other battle” – an astonishing formulation given the Israeli-American attacks on the mullahs’ regime, which is allied with Hezbollah.
Israel’s goals
Israel’s goals in Lebanon are likely to go beyond retaliation for rocket fire. Eyal Zamir, the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, declared loudly HaaretzIsrael will not end the war until the threat from Hezbollah is eliminated. In the long term, their military capabilities would have to be weakened or even destroyed.
The Israel expert Peter Lintl from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) in Berlin told the magazine Focus: “This is generally Israel’s new military strategic orientation that developed in the wake of October 7th.” The goal is now no longer just to contain opponents, but to fight them so that they no longer pose a threat at all. However, according to the political scientist, it is hardly realistic to completely eliminate Hezbollah – the organization is too firmly anchored in Lebanese society for that. It is more likely that Israel is trying to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and take Hezbollah’s positions there.
Also the Israeli historian and security expert Shmuel Bar believes that Israel does not want to penetrate deep into Lebanon, but rather intends to weaken Hezbollah enough for the Lebanese army and government to take control. Israel wants to make it clear to the Lebanese once and for all that they are backing the wrong horse with Hezbollah, he told the Jewish general.