It appears this surge was driven, at least in part, by geopolitical developments — specifically the war in Iran. Based on impressions on the ground, heightened anti-war sentiment seems to have mobilized both the Muslim and young hard-left voters who form the party’s base.
The implications of this are significant: Many had written Mélenchon off after a series of scandals and a dip in national polling. But these successes suggest he may yet play an important role in shaping the presidential elections — again — making it difficult for a more moderate left candidate to emerge and possibly even reaching the final run-off alongside the far right.
Meanwhile, France’s traditional parties — the center-left Socialists and center-right Republicans — continue to display an unexpected resilience at the local level, despite being nationally sidelined since 2017. Together they dominated a majority of towns, including many of the country’s largest cities, remaining deeply embedded in municipal politics.
By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist movement remains conspicuously weak, having failed to establish a meaningful municipal base after nearly a decade in power. It’s an absence that helps explain the lack of a clear anti-incumbent wave, as voters had limited opportunities to express dissatisfaction with the government at the local ballot box given the relatively few centrist mayors they could unseat.
Finally, amid this fragmented field, the one figure that stands out is former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe.
Philippe’s strong showing in Le Havre — where he secured 43 percent of the vote in the first round — comfortably positions him for reelection. And out of the large pack of candidates trailing behind the far right in the presidential polls, he now looks to be the strongest (though marginally) and most experienced contender. Philippe had previously said he would abandon his national ambitions if he lost the mayoral race, but a good win on Sunday could easily relaunch his flagging national campaign.
The second round of municipal elections will, of course, be crucial. A strong showing by the RN — particularly if the party is able to capture Marseille and Toulon — could restore its momentum and reinforce its performance at the national level.
But in such an uncertain environment, next year’s race is far from decided. And what the first round of municipal results really reveal isn’t so much a country marching in one direction as one pulled in several at once, searching — perhaps uneasily — for a new political equilibrium.