Hi, Paul Colgan here and welcome to our Monday edition of Inside Politics. We’ll be sending out this briefing to everyone who has signed up to the newsletter every week the Dáil is sitting.
Greenland row poses problems for Emerald Isle
There is just no getting away from the US president. Donald Trump just doesn’t take a day off.
As the third full week of the year begins, he again looks set to cast a long shadow over politics both foreign and domestic.
His declaration on Saturday of fresh tariffs on Denmark and the seven Nato countries that are lending military support to their Danish allies in Greenland risks bringing US-EU relations to an unprecedented low – if not a fundamental fracture.
The countries in question – Britain, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden – have warned of a dangerous “downward spiral” as a result of this renewed US economic aggression – and that they will “stand together” against it.
So will it be “Boston or Berlin” for Ireland?
According to Taoiseach Michéal Martin, perhaps unsurprisingly, it remains both. For the time being, at least.
With several European leaders seemingly resigned to putting the transatlantic trade deal that was agreed last summer on ice, the message from Martin has essentially been “steady on lads, not so hasty”.
Speaking on RTÉ’s This Week programme yesterday he called Trump’s threats “unacceptable” but warned against any “knee-jerk” actions that could blow apart the “Turnberry” trade deal agreed in Scotland.
Such reaction may include deployment of the EU’s so-called “trade bazooka” – the anti-coercion instrument (ACI).
The French are reportedly looking to lock and load that particular piece of hardware – the firing of which would limit US access to European markets, make American tech bros very unhappy and put Ireland in a rather tricky spot altogether.
Fianna Fáil MEP Barry Andrews, however, has had enough with the “appeasement” of Trump and is calling for Europe to take the shot.
As of last night, calm seems to be prevailing in Brussels.
Following a hastily arranged meeting of EU ambassadors it appears there is no immediate plan to break open the trade armoury. The ACI – and €93 billion of retaliatory tariffs – remain in reserve for now.
Getting quick agreement on the best way to put some manners on the US president will be no easy task. With lots of talk about Neville Chamberlain tribute acts, just how hard it will be to sell the Irish message of “careful now” remains to be seen.
Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris will presumably convey that position to his European counterparts today when they meet in Brussels.
An emergency meeting of the 27 EU leaders is scheduled for Thursday – and that’s where the internal European horse-trading will really get going.
In the interim, the Taoiseach is off to Davos, Switzerland, for the annual World Economic Forum.
Traditionally billed as a get-together for champions of free trade and globalisation, the picturesque ski resort will presumably be infused with an awful case of the jitters this week. Trump is due to address attendees on Wednesday.
Amid this carry-on, the opposition has not taken its eye off the EU-Mercosur deal.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald says Trump’s antics cannot be used as cover by the Government to sign off on what is a “very, very bad deal” for Ireland and the rest of the world.
Ireland’s EU commissioner Michael McGrath says fears that it will devastate the Irish beef industry are “unfounded”.
It all feels strikingly familiar to last January.
This time last year, the Irish diplomatic and press corps were fretting over the prospect that Ireland might be denied its traditional Oval Office moment come St Patrick’s week – due to its opposition to the slaughter in Gaza.
Depending on how the coming weeks unfold, some people in Government Buildings and Iveagh House might now secretly welcome such a development. If nothing else, that particular meeting could prove even more awkward than the 2025 edition.
With the Taoiseach insisting that it is still good to talk, expect Opposition deputies to turn up the heat on this one.
Grok controversy
At home, focus continues on Elon Musk’s Grok AI platform, with the Government discussing the possible strengthening of laws around intimate image abuse.
With a European Commission investigation expected later this week into the app’s ability to generate offensive content, the Cabinet will examine whether “Coco’s Law” can be toughened up.
An Garda Síochána is investigating about 200 allegations of child sex-abuse imagery generated by Grok.
Ministers will also consider the possible need for a new law banning so-called “deepfake” images.