Is the situation between the USA and Iran escalating? Expert Urs Vogeli (center) classifies and says what role US President Donald Trump (left) and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) play. image: watson/keystone
interview
A large US armada is waiting in front of Iran. An attack seems conceivable. Urs Vogeli, head of a think tank for geopolitics, classifies the situation and explains how the Olympic Games are related to a possible war in the Middle East.
02/20/2026, 06:2702/20/2026, 06:27
Mr. Vogeli, since the beginning of the year, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene in Iran. Nothing has ever happened so far. Will the US attack this time?
Everything is mobilized in front of Iran. A huge armada of ships, submarines, two aircraft carriers and several hundred fighter jets are waiting. The USA has put on the brass knuckles. It seems as if the Americans now want to use their resources. But one should never forget: Negotiations are still ongoing over Tehran’s nuclear program, which Washington wants to restrict. Trump is a dealmaker. And many motives and factors can play a role in the further course of events.
For example?
The strategically important group of islands lies in the Pacific Diego Garcíawhich belongs to the United Kingdom. The USA uses it as a base. But British Prime Minister Keir Starmer now wants to return Diego Garcia to Mauritius. Some analysts assume that the current military presence and possible escalation will make this plan more difficult. At the same time, there are rumors that Trump will not travel to the Olympics as planned. This may also have something to do with the situation in Iran.
To person
Urs Vogeli is director at the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs. The think tank researches security and geopolitical issues. The 41-year-old has a doctorate in political science from the University of Zurich and runs a company that advises governments and companies on political strategy issues. Vogeli also serves as a militia officer in the army. He worked for six months with the Swiss peacekeeping force “KFOR” in Kosovo.
Image: zvg
What do the Olympics have to do with a possible conflict between the USA and Iran?
Trump is pursuing an agenda, consciously or unconsciously, perhaps also controlled by advisors. Experience shows that this agenda has a dramaturgy and clear highlights. The Trump administration is consciously trying to influence what topic the world public is talking about each week or two.
Donald Trump is currently said to be weighing the pros and cons of an attack. What should be at the center of his considerations?
Costs and benefits. Donald Trump thinks transactionally; deals are crucial for him. What he would most like to achieve is a successful negotiation regarding the Iranian nuclear program. If this cannot be achieved, the chances of an attack increase. Such a move would weaken the Iranian regime in the short term and, if anything, fuel protests in the country. The Iran-Russia-China axis would also be damaged. But in the medium term, resistance from the so-called BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, Iran, China and South Africa) against the USA and the West is growing. The question is whether Trump is considering these things.
What might an attack look like after a failed agreement?
A shot across the bow with a limited number of airstrikes seems most likely. So an attack on the scale of last year. At that time, the USA bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. A war without inhibitions is neither in the interests of the USA nor of Iran, which would be facing a major military power. The political risk is great for Trump, for example with a view to the midterms. That is why a military overthrow of the regime is less likely. Such an attack would require a large-scale attack and would bring with it too many uncertainties.
Could the US kidnap Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s top politician, just as it did Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro?
The situation in Iran is not comparable to that in Venezuela. Nicolas Maduro was more vulnerable because the Venezuelan government revolved primarily around him. Iran is a much larger country, which alone makes a kidnapping operation more difficult. Furthermore, the removal of Ali Khamenei would not mean the end of the mullahs’ regime. It can be assumed that another character would take his place.
What options does Iran have to respond to a US attack?
There are many US bases in the neighborhood. Iran could fire at them or try to sink a ship in the US fleet. The Iran-backed Houthi militias could also take on a more important role again by attacking cargo ships. Another possibility – of many, mind you – is to close the Strait of Hormuz. It is an important waterway for the global oil market.
One reads that such a blockage could drive up the price of oil. That would have to play into the hands of Vladimir Putin, who is financing the war against Ukraine primarily through oil sales.
Yes, for example. But remember: Trump could also put his Venezuelan oil on the market at higher prices. So I’ll say it again: An enormous number of factors play a role. Predictions are difficult. We must prepare to handle a less predictable and reliable world. Also in Switzerland.