Stubb told his audience he feared that peace talks in Ukraine are fast approaching a moment of truth, which could force Kyiv to accept a a bad settlement that involves ceding territory to Putin. The negotiations could even collapse, leaving Europe on the hook — without American help — obliging European powers to step in to help Ukraine with more intelligence, weapons and other support, he said.
Stubb said he takes a realistic view of how much he is able to influence Trump, after the two bonded over a seven-hour golf and lunch meeting last year. Finland has just bought 64 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. and hosts thousands of American troops training in Arctic conditions.
“I have no illusions about who can convince President Trump on anything,” Stubb said. “If I get one idea out of 10 in on Ukraine, I think it’s good.”
The implications of the war in Iran are “negative” for Ukraine, mainly because the price of oil favors Russia’s war machinery, Stubb said. “The Russian economy was actually doing extremely badly a couple of weeks back, now it’s bouncing back.” It’s also taking air defense systems away from where they are needed in Ukraine.
Finally, it has shifted the focus from the peace talks on Ukraine. “I hope the peace negotiations on Ukraine don’t collapse like the negotiations between Iran and the U.S. did,” Stubb said. “But time will tell.”