Another blow for the SPD: Following their debacle in the Baden-Württemberg state elections two weeks ago, the party has suffered another sharp loss in Rhineland-Palatinate, dropping around nine percentage points and losing to the CDU.
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Projections from ARD and ZDF (Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Kulturen) after 8 pm show the CDU leading with 30.6%, while the Social Democrats, who have governed for 35 years under incumbent state premier Alexander Schweitzer, trail in second place with just 25.7%.
AfD records strongest result in the West
The biggest gains went to the AfD, which, according to projections, comes third with around 20%.
While all three governing parties (SPD, Greens, and FDP) suffered more or less significant losses—and the CDU and Left Party’s gains of two to three percentage points appear modest—the AfD’s jump of more than eleven points is striking.
This is likely to be the right-wing populists’ best result in a state election in western Germany.
The party now positions itself as a strong opposition force. Party leader Alice Weidel was already promising “excellent opposition work” on Sunday evening.
Only four parties in total in the state parliament
The Greens became the fourth-strongest party with 7.9 percent. The Free Democrats, the third partner in Rhineland-Palatinate’s traffic-light coalition, will, according to the projections, no longer make it into the state parliament, with around two percent. The Left Party also misses out on entering parliament, despite gains, with just over four percent of the vote.
It was initially unclear how much the high number of postal votes could still affect the outcome. According to the current projections, however, only four parties will be represented in the state parliament.
Grand coalition with CDU as senior partner likely
The CDU is likely to provide the next state premier in the form of Gordon Schnieder, brother of Federal Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder. A grand coalition with the SPD currently appears the most likely option.
For Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s federal CDU this is a clear success after the neck-and-neck race in the campaign in Rhineland-Palatinate. The race against the Greens two weeks ago in Baden-Württemberg was much tighter.
The party’s parliamentary group leader at federal level, Jens Spahn, described the victory as “historic”. He also sees it as a signal for national politics, hoping for a “tailwind” at the federal level, he told ARD in an interview.
Within the SPD, however, the shock runs deep. Party leader and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil announced personnel debates as a result in an ARD interview, while the SPD’s general secretary spoke of a “bitter setback”.