How will things go this time? Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyj “talk politics” at the funeral of Pope Francis. Image: x
analysis
What does Zelensky hope to gain from his meeting with Trump? Recently, the Ukrainian president became very specific. But Putin’s certainty of victory makes agreement difficult.
December 28, 2025, 4:52 p.mDecember 28, 2025, 4:53 p.m
Maxim Kireev / Time Online
Once again the announcements sound full-bodied. “This year,” as the Ukrainian president recently explained, “a lot could be decided.” Also Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed in Moscow a few days agothat what is now important is a “final push”. Optimistic tones can also be heard from the USA. “I think we have a good chance,” US President Donald Trump told the New York Post newspaper.
In fact, the upcoming meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyj and Trump is the current highlight of a weeks-long marathon of negotiations. At the end, at least the Ukrainian leadership hopes, a peace plan will emerge that it can present to Russia together with the USA and its European allies. Putin, in turn, should then either agree or feel Trump’s wrath.
However, realizing this scenario will be extremely difficult. Because the USA has retreated firmly into the role of mediator. What’s more: The current round of negotiations began with a shock for Ukraine when Trump’s so-called 28-point plan became public on November 20th.
US representatives apparently developed this plan in close cooperation with Russia. The paper contained a range of Russian demands that were unacceptable to either Ukraine or its European allies. Ukraine should, for example, forego membership in the NATO military alliance and also withdraw its troops from those parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that Russia has not yet occupied. The draft also included an amnesty for Russian war criminals and an end to sanctions. On the other hand, in this draft Russia indicated for the first time its willingness to accept US security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a possible peace agreement.
The initial shock was followed by a whole series of rounds of negotiations in the USA and also in Berlin in mid-December. These discussions resulted in a thoroughly revised version of the document. And it is precisely this version that will now be discussed at the meeting between Zelensky and Trump this Sunday in Florida. The Ukrainian version of the draft currently includes 20 points.
Trump keeps his distance before meetings
The new plan calls for fighting to end along the current front line. Ukraine should receive security guarantees from the USA, European partners and NATO. Both Russia and Ukraine should also undertake not to use force to move the front line after an agreement. Russia, for its part, should withdraw from the areas of Sumy, Kharkiv and Dnipro as well as Mykolaiv, a total of around 2,000 square kilometers.
Nevertheless, the most important points remain unclear in the new document. Even before his trip to the USA, Zelensky had told journalists that there was no agreement with the USA, especially on the Donbass issue: Ukraine was insisting on freezing the war along the front line for this section as well. Russia, in turn, is demanding a withdrawal of the Ukrainians, as envisaged in the original 28-point plan. Trump continues to show understanding for this Russian position.
As a possible compromise, the USA has proposed a so-called special economic zone for the area. Probably also to make it easier for Zelensky to give in. However, who should control this zone and how this proposal specifically differs from the Russian demand is still unclear. Before the meeting with Zelensky, Trump signaled that the new 20-point plan had not been finalized. “Zelenskyj has nothing unless I agree,” he said in an interview with the Politico portal.
Another open question is the future control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia occupies it. The USA proposes to bring it back online together with Russia. Ukraine is against this forced cooperation with Russia and advocates shared use with the USA as its only partner. Why Putin should agree to this demand is unclear.
And so Zelensky must continue to curry favor with US President Trump. “Zelensky’s goal remains to demonstrate that Ukraine remains a constructive partner in the peace process initiated by Donald Trump,” said Mykola Bielieskow, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv. In Florida, Bielieskow believes Zelensky will try to get as many solid assurances from Trump on the subject of security guarantees as possible. This, in turn, would give the Ukrainian president more leeway on the territorial issue.
In fact, Zelensky has an interview with the US portal Axios a possible referendum on the future of Donbass was brought into play. However, the prerequisite for this is a 60-day ceasefire and security guarantees. In the USA, this was interpreted as a willingness to compromise on the part of the Ukrainian government. “Zelenskyj could try to use Trump’s desire for a quick agreement to make progress on security by emphasizing that the territorial and security dimensions are closely linked,” analyzes Bielieskow.
Putin threatens more armed violence
However, if Trump and Zelensky actually reach an agreement on this issue, this alone would not bring an end to the war. If the content of any agreement deviates from Russia’s demands, Russia is likely to respond with a no.
There are no Russian representatives in Florida. And so far, the Russian warlord has shown no willingness to deviate from the territorial demands of the original 28-point plan. In recent days, Putin has missed no opportunity to emphasize the severity of his position. A few days ago in Moscow, he is said to have declared at a confidential meeting with business bosses that the “future of Donbass is non-negotiable”. The Donbass “belongs to us,” the business newspaper Kommersant quoted from the meeting.
On Saturday, Putin further increased the verbal pressure. “Given the speed” at which Russia is advancing, its interest in an agreement on a voluntary withdrawal of Ukrainians from Donbass is “near zero,” Putin claimed at a meeting with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. He had previously reported to Putin about the alleged capture of the cities of Myrnohrad and Hulyaypole. “If the Kyiv rulers do not want to end the matter peacefully, then we will achieve our goals through armed force,” Putin continued.
Another open point of conflict remains the possible stationing of European troops in Ukraine after the end of the war. At the Berlin summit, Ukraine’s European partners promised to send their own soldiers to the country after the end of the war. Russia continues to strictly reject this. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed this in an interview with the state agency Tass on Sunday. Russia would consider these units a “legal target,” Lavrov said.
The Foreign Minister has also already identified the culprit if there is actually an agreement between Trump and Zelensky in Florida that ignores Russia’s demands. “We appreciate Trump’s efforts,” Lavrov said. However, the main obstacle on the way to peace is “Europe and the European Union”.
This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed headings and subheadings. Click here for the original.