His closest aides advised him against war, but Donald Trump didn’t listen to them.Image: keystone
analysis
Donald Trump is selling the two-week ceasefire with Iran as a great success. The regime in Tehran in particular can feel like a winner. It didn’t lose the war.
April 8, 2026, 2:51 p.mApril 8, 2026, 2:51 p.m
The acronym was quickly on the scene when the two-week ceasefire in the Iran War was announced on Wednesday night: TACO again. Or in full: Trump always chickens out. The loudmouth in the White House once again pulled back before things escalated, according to many observers and media outlets.
One could casually argue that TACO has never tasted so good. Because on Tuesday Donald Trump had virtually threatened the Iranians with destruction. Their civilization will perish, he posted on Truth Social. Even Pope Leo XIV was shocked: the threats against the entire people of Iran were “really unacceptable.”
Regime supporters celebrate the agreement in Tehran on Wednesday night.Image: keystone
There are some indications that it was a smoke petard. Just 15 minutes after the “genocide post”, the US armed forces received the order to stop their attack preparationswrites the well-informed news portal Axios. Reports that Iran had broken off talks with the US were inaccurate.
Agreement on Monday
In principle, both sides agreed on Monday evening to seek a two-week ceasefire, reports Axios. During the course of Tuesday, the talks mediated by the Pakistani government gained momentum. Trump was pressured by hardliners among his allies and confidants to reject the deal.
The pressure probably came not least from the Israeli side. A report suggests this about the history of the war which the New York Times published on Tuesday. It is an excerpt from the new book by reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, which will be published in June under the title “Regime Change”.
Netanyahu’s promise
This does not mean Iran, but the USA. In this specific case, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is said to have promised Trump a “quick and decisive victory” including regime change during his visit to Washington on February 11, just over two weeks before the start of the war.
Donald Trump welcomes Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House on February 11th.Image: keystone/XINHUA
Netanyahu was supported by David Barnea, head of the Mossad secret service. He claimed that the Iranian people will take to the streets againjust weeks after the last protests were brutally suppressed. Intensive bombing would create the conditions for the overthrow of the mullahs.
Skepticism among employees
The next day, Donald Trump discussed the scenario with his closest employees and was met with manageable enthusiasm. CIA Director John Ratcliffe described it as “laughable.” Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio added that it was “bullshit.” And Chief of Staff Dan Caine said the Israeli plan promises more than it can deliver.
Vice President JD Vance also expressed skepticism about the idea that regime change could be bombed in Iran. Nevertheless, Donald Trump got involved, be it out of disgust for the “theocracy” that he had expressed at a young ageor from his belief that one can only becomes a great president with a big war.
Regime remains in control
Despite concerns from those around him, Trump gave the order to attack. But the skeptics were right. It is true that revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the first wave of attacks. But the regime proved resilient. It may be militarily weakened, but politically it remains in control of the country.
Even in the oil country USA, gasoline prices rose because of the war. They are particularly high in California. Image: keystone
The popular uprising provoked by the Israelis failed to materialize. Their claim that the regime would be too weakened by the airstrikes to close the Strait of Hormuz also did not come true. The Iranians’ promise to reopen them for trade is likely to be the main reason for Trump’s willingness to call for a ceasefire.
Green light from Khamenei?
A prolonged lockdown would have had serious consequences for fuel supplies and global food production. But rising prices at gas stations and supermarkets are the last thing Donald Trump needs. He was elected in 2024 on a promise to lower them. He had no choice but to cave at the last minute.
Now he is trying to present himself as a winner by promising a “golden age” for the Middle East. Of course the Iranians also had to give in. The new Supreme Leader Moschtaba Khamenei – from whom it on Tuesday it was said that he was in a coma – according to Axios, is said to have personally given the green light for the ceasefire, also on the advice of China.
Negotiations from Friday
The ceasefire got off to a rocky start and another escalation is possible. At the moment, however, relief predominates, including among the Arab neighbors. While Israel looks embarrassed. Benjamin Netanyahu “failed politically, failed strategically and did not achieve any of the goals he had set for himself,” said opposition leader Jair Lapid.
In any case, the signs point to de-escalation for the time being. Actual peace negotiations are scheduled to begin on Friday in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, where both sides will sit face to face for the first time. The US delegation should, according to an Axios report led by war skeptic JD Vance.
Difficult discussions are foreseeable, especially over the most important points of contention: Iran’s missile and nuclear program and support for militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. A breakthrough in two weeks is hardly conceivable, but the immediate threat of war appears to have been averted because Donald Trump has caved. Thank TACO.