March 22, 2026, 6:32 p.mMarch 22, 2026, 6:32 p.m
According to forecasts by ARD and ZDF, the Christian Democratic CDU became the strongest force in the state elections in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate.
Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer’s Social Democratic SPD suffered heavy losses and ended up in second place. The right-wing populist AfD more than doubles its share of the vote compared to the previous election five years ago – it is expected to be its best result in a western German state.
The Greens lose easily. The Free Voters probably failed to meet the five percent hurdle to re-enter the federal state’s parliament – the state parliament – and the Left also has to worry. The economically liberal FDP, which has previously been part of the government in the state capital Mainz in a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, is clearly out of the state parliament.
Friedrich Merz and Gordon Schnieder cheer.Image: keystone
Historic low for SPD
According to the first forecasts from 6 p.m., the CDU with top candidate Gordon Schnieder will increase to 30.5 percent (27.7 percent) compared to the 2021 election. The 50-year-old financial economist could now become the next prime minister after his party was in opposition for almost 35 years in the homeland of long-time Christian Democratic German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.
The SPD fell to 26.5 to 27.0 percent (2021: 35.7) – a historic low for the traditional party in state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate. The AfD jumps to 20.0 (8.3) – its record in state elections in the southwest German state on the Rhine and Moselle.
The Greens received 7.5 to 8.5 percent of the vote (9.3). The Free Voters only achieved 3.5 to 4.0 percent (5.4), the Left, which has never been represented in the Mainz state parliament, 4.5 percent (2.5). At 2.0 to 2.1 percent, the FDP is well below the five percent mark and has to leave the state parliament after ten years – it now sits in parliament in six federal states and only in the government in Saxony-Anhalt.
Almost three million citizens were called to vote. According to forecasts, voter turnout was between 63.5 and 69.5 percent (2021: 64.3).
The SPD’s race to catch up is not enough
For ten years, the coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP, known as the “Traffic Light” after the party colors, has ruled the state with a good four million inhabitants. The CDU had been clearly leading in surveys for months, and the SPD has been catching up since the beginning of the year – but in the end not enough. Now everything boils down to a “black-red” coalition between the CDU and SPD under Schnieder – like at the federal level in Berlin – because both parties rule out a government with the AfD.
Schnieder leads the state CDU as party and parliamentary group leader. The father of three children scored points in the rural state as a down-to-earth man from a village in the Vulkaneifel. His older brother Patrick (also CDU) is Federal Minister of Transport.
Prime Minister Schweitzer faced the vote for the first time. The 52-year-old lawyer took over the office in the summer of 2024 from the popular Malu Dreyer, who had achieved above-average results for many years and resigned for health reasons.
Things are getting even more uncomfortable for the black and red coalition
If the CDU ultimately remains in first place, it would have saved the start of the important election year 2026 two weeks after the narrow defeat in a state election in the neighboring state of Baden-Württemberg.
For the SPD, the foreseeable defeat after almost 35 years in government is a fiasco. In the federal party, this could give a boost to all those on the left wing who would like the chairmen, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, to take a more confrontational course towards Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic coalition partner.
There is therefore likely to be a crunch in the coalition – especially before sensitive discussions about essential social reforms in health insurance, care and pensions. The Union (CDU and CSU) and SPD want to reach an agreement by the end of the year. In between there are elections in September in the eastern German states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, in which the AfD could become by far the strongest force. (sda/dpa)